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Tropical TS Arthur

tractor girl said:
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If this system develops and follows the general track on Levi's map, this would be just what the doctor ordered for drought relief in Central North Carolina. We need a system tracking over the area that has the potential to dump multiple inches of rain.
 
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Yeah I'm not sure it will get a name(the track is mostly inland I hope not haha the impacts aren't gonna change magically) but that's gonna be a lot of rain pushing east either way

It's interesting to note the Euro has been showing intensification over land the past few runs
 
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Very unsettled on satellite this morning again remember it's mostly over land. It may only get over water a few hours near Texas tomorrow. It also sounds like the NHC is gonna pull the trigger on something soon from their wording

And yes it's a weird track due to the cold front we had but don't forget Milton moved east across the Gulf in 2024
goes19_ir_90L_202606161207_lat26.9-lon-99.3.jpg
 
Radar imagery indicates the COC about 50 miles west of Corpus Christy ATM. It'll be interesting to see if a new center forms or is tugged towards the convection just offshore during the course of the day, as suggested by several of the hurricane models before the same models lose it.
 
Brent said:
Yeah I'm not sure it will get a name(the track is mostly inland I hope not haha the impacts aren't gonna change magically) but that's gonna be a lot of rain pushing east either way

It's interesting to note the Euro has been showing intensification over land the past few runs
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The 6z Euro finally killed that look which is a bummer. The 0z would have been highly interesting from a tornado spinup perspective.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
NHC thinks it might become Arthur:

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I could see this becoming Arthur if the track swings out farther to the east. With so much of this system over land though, it probably won't be nothing more than a minimal tropical storm at best. The precipitation will be the big story with this system which could bring some much needed drought relief for many of us in the Southeast.
 
weather bubba said:
I could see this becoming Arthur if the track swings out farther to the east. With so much of this system over land though, it probably won't be nothing more than a minimal tropical storm at best. The precipitation will be the big story with this system which could bring some much needed drought relief for many of us in the Southeast.
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Agreed. Thinking NHC’s forecast of 40 mph is a little bullish and this becoming a named storm is uncertain. But as you and others have mentioned, named vs unnamed won’t really matter on impacts.

Biggest impact is if they name it, more headlines for the general public.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Agreed. Thinking NHC’s forecast of 40 mph is a little bullish and this becoming a named storm is uncertain. But as you and others have mentioned, named vs unnamed won’t really matter on impacts.

Biggest impact is if they name it, more headlines for the general public.
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Yeah my professional met friends were not happy about this haha

It's just more work for a very borderline event where the rain will be the big story

And we haven't had an A storm be a hurricane in 12 years either. Just seems like a trend to be a weak storm
 
Just looking at the 00z GFS and taking it with a grain of salt, its seems way south of us in the Carolinas!
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DEVELOPS NEAR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 95.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to High
Island, Texas.
 
080000_5day_cone.png
 
This is a big win for Joe Bastardi!

Here’s why it was upgraded:


1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective
organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone.
Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report
have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this
convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to
52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm
intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as
Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt.
 
133530 2834N 09404W 8431 01546 0079 +156 +150 147051 052 038 002 00

Orange flag in post above 52 kt = 60 mph flight level1:40 ago
 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

This special advisory is being issued to extend the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Upper Texas coast southward to Sargent, Texas.
Recent surface observations and NOAA buoy 42035 indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt, and the estimated minimum
pressure has fallen to 999 mb.
 
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