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Tropical Tropical Storm Kirk

The NHC will be discontinuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk at 11am, it lacks a well defined closed circulation and it is pretty disorganized and broad overall
 
Yep... it's tough to barrel headfirst into 30-50 kts of shear and survive. Had Kirk been further north to start with, he might have had a chance.

25-wg8shr.GIF
 
Remants of Kirk sure have looked good. This is a strong system maintaining itself pretty well. We aren't done with it yet. The picture above is a good illustration of how if the system gains latitude or just gets closer to the mainland that it has a more favorable environment to work with. It is forecast to do that in the coming days. In addtion, the operational NOGAPS with run to run continuity, and a decent number of CMC, GFS, and EURO ensembles are hinting at a more organized system the further west it tracks.
 
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I wonder if Kirk can strengthen enough to dodge the shear and make it just north of the Caribbean. Seems to be moving WNW with more of a NW component on the satellite. Recon is flying in so we will see how strong or weak he really is.
 
I wonder if Kirk can strengthen enough to dodge the shear and make it just north of the Caribbean. Seems to be moving WNW with more of a NW component on the satellite. Recon is flying in so we will see how strong or weak he really is.
Just about every model would have missed it if it does, however, a stronger system would argue poleward movement I would think.... so anything is certainly possible.
 
Just about every model would have missed it if it does, however, a stronger system would argue poleward movement I would think.... so anything is certainly possible.
On second thought..... nah doubtful

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Looks like the center is on the western edge of that deep convection, so it's not a well organized stacked system I don't think so probably not as strong as it looks.
 
Must be in a strong wind band right now, because recon is measuring surface winds at or just below hurricane strength at the peak. Also there are some strong FL winds in the region they are approaching. I also am not sure, but the wind direction is changing quickly as they are headed north. Maybe it's from the mid-level circulation or just the speed of the storm?
 
Must be in a strong wind band right now, because recon is measuring surface winds at or just below hurricane strength at the peak. Also there are some strong FL winds in the region they are approaching. I also am not sure, but the wind direction is changing quickly as they are headed north. Maybe it's from the mid-level circulation or just the speed of the storm?
Yeah, looks like a thunderstorm band. High rain rates plus the FL winds not being stronger.

150400 1116N 05256W 8429 01567 0122 +152 +152 167046 049 044 038 03
150430 1118N 05256W 8431 01563 0122 +156 +156 165049 051 048 051 03
150500 1120N 05257W 8415 01576 0120 +157 +157 160054 058 050 056 00
150530 1122N 05257W 8439 01556 0119 +164 +164 160048 052 050 055 00
150600 1124N 05257W 8433 01561 0119 +163 +163 178046 049 051 077 03
150630 1126N 05257W 8419 01577 0115 +170 +170 167041 045 061 086 00
150700 1128N 05257W 8421 01572 0116 +171 +171 169031 046 065 073 00
150730 1130N 05258W 8433 01565 0114 +176 +176 162043 047 056 065 00
150800 1132N 05258W 8427 01571 0122 +166 +166 147053 055 048 031 00
150830 1134N 05258W 8431 01567 0124 +163 +163 150049 054 043 031 00
150900 1136N 05258W 8434 01570 0120 +160 +160 152040 049 043 021 00
 
Navgem, Icon, and CMC show him hanging on as a low....enough for 2 versions to get him to the Gulf. Interesting enough, all 3 had him coming back to life over the past couple of days. Only GFS and Euro keep killing him off.
3 against 2....in the weather business that might be called 50/50 chance...idk...ha
 
Navgem, Icon, and CMC show him hanging on as a low....enough for 2 versions to get him to the Gulf. Interesting enough, all 3 had him coming back to life over the past couple of days. Only GFS and Euro keep killing him off.
3 against 2....in the weather business that might be called 50/50 chance...idk...ha

But Euro and GFS, especially the mean of those 2, have had better accuracy in the tropics overall than those other 3. And often, they’re actually too strong. And the forecasted shear is very high. So, there’s strong support for him to fall apart to almost nothing in the Caribbean. OTOH, it is a bit stronger than models have currently fwiw. Also, let’s make sure Kirk doesn’t go significantly further N than the NHC has, which could get him out of the high shear sooner if he were to somehow survive. Unlikely as of now though. The ICON has shifted further south.
 
From another BB, I’m reading that Kirk is legitimately now a good bit stronger than the NHC 45 knots with SLP down to 998 mb. Also, there was a mention that the center may have been tugged north into heavier convection. But warning: none of this is official or from pro mets even though they are knowledgeable amateurs.
 
From another BB, I’m reading that Kirk is legitimately now a good bit stronger than the NHC 45 knots with SLP down to 998 mb. Also, there was a mention that the center may have been tugged north into heavier convection. But warning: none of this is official or from pro mets even though they are knowledgeable amateurs.
Recon makes it official. Seems stronger throughout and the pressure is a bit higher than 998 mb as is is 1001 mb, but the center went way NNW of the last pass.
 
999 mb on the last pass and still NW relatively. Also, seems to have winds up around 60 mph on the NE side.
Icon 12z runs it further north along the top of the shear wall. CMC runs it straight through the wall, which sounds illogical. Navgem runs further north. Staying with this theme since they saw something different over the past couple of days that keep him alive.
 
There are so many hurricanes on the 0Z CDN ensemble Oct. 1-10 in the Gulf and off the SE US coast directly related to Kirk that the maps remind me of "The Trouble with Tribbles" Star Trek episode. Call this "The Trouble with Kirks"??
What is with that ensemble's nonstop love affair with Kirk?
 
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Cover your eyes as his center is on the verge of going naked. For the first time, I can see the LLC partially peaking out just to the west of the western wall of the high level convective clouds. Anyone else see it? Center looks like it is near 13.8N, 58.9W moving WNW or maybe even NW.
 
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