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Tropical Storm Fernand

Snowfan

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It just got designated along with Invest 92L.
A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This
system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the low moves
slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of
Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 

BufordWX

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Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico have become more
concentrated since last night. Recent visible satellite imagery
indicates that the surface circulation associated with the low has
also become better defined. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next two or three days
while the low moves
slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 

Snowfan

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An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms continues in
association with an area of low pressure located over the
south-central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next few days while the low moves
slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 

BufordWX

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Odds up to 80/80. May have a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft investigate later today.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located over the west-central Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles
east-northeast of Tampico, Mexico, is showing signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to
form during the next day or so
while the low moves slowly westward
or west-southwestward toward Mexico. Interests along the

northeastern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate

the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 

BufordWX

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This is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory 1:

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...


LOCATION: 23.5N 94.3W
ABOUT 220 MI E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 MB

New Watches/Warnings:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from La Pesca northward to Barra El Mezquital.

Forecast Track/Intensity:
CC8BDAB9-A50E-4C78-B032-A13D765304DF.png
12H: 23.4N 95.2W 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 23.4N 96.3W 40 MPH
36H: 23.7N 97.1W 45 MPH
48H: 24.3N 98.2W 35 MPH...INLAND
 

BufordWX

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory 1A:

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


LOCATION...23.5N 94.6W
ABOUT 200 MI E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 MB
 

Snowfan

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...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 94.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 

Brent

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Fernand

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 95.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 

ForsythSnow

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King EURO forecasted this 9 days in advance per Twitter.
Well from what I remember and can go look at in the models, the Euro sucked on this. It didn't even want it to develop. The ICON was persistent at developing it however. The ICON was also a lot stronger than the Euro, being around 1006. Yes the ICON was further north than reality, but that pressure is right on the dot. The Euro is nothing more than a weak swirl.
IconGood.png EuroBad.png
 

BufordWX

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Fernand up to sustained winds of 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory 3A:

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS FERNAND A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FERNAND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY...


LOCATION: 23.2N 96.3W
ABOUT 105 MI ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 MB
 

BufordWX

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NHC has Fernand strengthening more before landfall which is now predicted to be with 65 mph sustained winds.

Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory 4:

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ALREADY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...


LOCATION: 23.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 100 MI ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 MB

Forecast Track/Intensity:
D1DF25F9-259C-48C9-9A9C-FB632782BED6.png
12H: 23.5N 97.5W 65 MPH
24H: 24.0N 98.5W 35 MPH...INLAND
36H: 24.5N 100.0W 25 MPH...INLAND
48H: DISSIPATED
 

Snowfan

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SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 97.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 1005 MI...160 KM NNE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 

Snowfan

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SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 97.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 

Snowfan

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...FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates that the center of Fernand made
landfall along the coast of northeastern Mexico around 1115 AM CDT
(1615 UTC) about 35 miles (55 km) north of La Pesca with estimated
maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1135 AM CDT...1635 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 

Snowfan

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SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 

BufordWX

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Fernand has weakened to a Tropical Depression.

Tropical Depression Fernand Advisory 7:

...FERNAND PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...
...THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...


LOCATION: 24.4N 98.3W
ABOUT 50 MI NW OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB
 

BufordWX

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Fernand has officially degenerated into a remnant low.

Remnants of Fernand Advisory 8: (Final Advisory)

...FERNAND HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


LOCATION: 25.0N 99.0W
ABOUT 130 MI WSW OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 MB
 
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