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Tropical Tropical Storm Erin

Quite a few EPS members have a hurricane once it passes east of NC

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Models are pretty mixed through day 5 but nothing crazy

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Looks like it may move over Florida before much happens clear naked swirl moving towards Miami


Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure is located between the southeastern coast of Florida and
Andros Island in the northwestern Bahamas. The system is producing
a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend
primarily northeast of the center over the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.
The low is forecast to move near or over Florida later today, which
should limit development during the next day or so. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development once the system moves
back over the Atlantic waters, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the low moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeastern
United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and southern and central
Florida during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
Code RED

Surface and radar data, along with satellite imagery, indicate that
the low pressure area just east of the coast of southeastern Florida
is becoming better organized. The low is forecast to move generally
northwestward near or over the eastern Florida peninsula through
tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic
near the east coast of the central Florida peninsula on Saturday.
After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of
the southeastern United States coast. If the current trend
continues, a tropical depression is likely to form by Saturday
night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida
peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system on Saturday, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
@GaWx and @Webberweather53 - Thank you both for the current observations/discussion on specifics. I look at environment and such, more mid-range for "openings"; y'all are nailing it early on the real-life results. May soon be time to saunter on down to Wal-Mart and Publix and get some extra batteries and 7 -10 days worth of dry goods ... :oops::confused:
Again ... Thanks!

PS - This is not to ignore the many others who are providing great info, but Larry and Webb have been ... well, nailing it ...
 
A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northwestern Bahamas
and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Significant development of the
low is unlikely today while it drifts northward over the southern
Florida peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive to
support gradual development once the low moves off the east-central
coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical
or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system later
today could be postponed if the center of the low remains inland
over Florida. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system on Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Here's the latest from the NHC.
A trough of low pressure extending from the coast of south-central
Florida northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves northeastward over the Atlantic, offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Interests along the coasts of
South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
NHC has now slightly lowered chances of this system developing to 60/80.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
trough of low pressure that extends from south-central Florida
northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to
form within the next few days
while the system moves northeastward
offshore of the southeastern United States. Interests along the
coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter

aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary.

*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


F555CD1D-F34D-4B64-8439-5ABDF6FA8A80.png
 
NHC has raised 48 hour chance of development to 70% again. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission has been canceled, but another is scheduled for tomorrow.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation of an
elongated low pressure area centered about 350 miles south-southwest
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become a little better
defined. While the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently poorly organized, environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form within the next few days
while the system
moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United
States. Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. The Air

Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission scheduled for this
afternoon was canceled. However, another aircraft is scheduled to

investigate the system on Monday, if necessary. Additional
information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.


* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
Chances have increased again to 80/80.

An elongated area of low pressure centered about 280 miles
south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become a
little better organized this morning. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form today or Tuesday
while the
system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern
United States. Interests along the coasts of South and North
Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. An

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today, if necessary.


* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
Chances are still at 80/80.
An elongated area of low pressure located about 275 miles south-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become a little
better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form later today or Tuesday while
the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the
United States east coast. The reconnaissance aircraft mission for
today has been canceled.
 
Erin?

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure area
located about 300 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
has become better defined since yesterday, and is producing winds to
near tropical storm force well southeast of its center.
The
associated thunderstorm activity is also showing signs of
organization. Conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form
later today while the system moves slowly northeastward well
offshore of the United States east coast. Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
We got Tropical Depression 6

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE UNITED STATES...
Tropical Depression Six Advisory 1:

LOCATION: 31.7N 72.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: E AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1010 MB

Future Forecast Track/Intensity:
56355644-5207-48FF-AF80-0AE9983FEA56.png

12H: 40 MPH
24H: 40 MPH
36H: 40 MPH
48H: 45 MPH
72H: 50 MPH
96H: 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H: DISSIPATED
 
Tropical Depression Six Advisory 2:

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS
BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BERMUDA...


LOCATION: 31.5N 72.2W
ABOUT 320 MI SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: E AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1010 MB

Future Forecast Track/Intensity:
CA672E36-C464-49B8-AB35-4B95DD33F62F.png
12H: 35 MPH
24H: 40 MPH
36H: 40 MPH
48H: 45 MPH
72H: 45 MPH
96H: 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H: DISSIPATED
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 71.2W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
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