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Tropical Tropical Storm Emily

SD

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Models are showing some pretty disturbed weather in the NE gulf through Wednesday. Probably not enough time to get things going but stalled fronts just off the coast in July and August like to spawn tropical systems

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Models are showing some pretty disturbed weather in the NE gulf through Wednesday. Probably not enough time to get things going but stalled fronts just off the coast in July and August like to spawn tropical systems

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Yes it's the NAM, so I am not taking it for certain, just something to look at.
nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

Meanwhile the CMC does this. Perhaps this is the tropical system we need?
gem_apcpn_seus_19.png
 
No matter how many mistakes you make or how slow you progress, you are still way ahead of everyone who isn't trying.
 
Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with a small low pressure area located about 90 miles
west of Tampa, Florida, are showing some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
additional development
before the low moves inland over the
central Florida peninsula later today or tonight, and over the
western Atlantic late Tuesday or Wednesday. Regardless of
development, the low is expected to produce gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the
next couple of days. Please see additional information from your
local National Weather Service Forecast Offices concerning the
rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
I have to once more say congrats to the CMC for sniffing this one out, while the GFS dissipated a very weak low, and the Euro only had it develop in the Atlantic. The NAM gets a short range win for sniffing as it has done great with pressure and relative area except the over strengthened run. How the HMON-PARA and HWRF and HWRF-PARA go, they are all going to based on life of the storm since they have only had 3 runs so far.
 
Anyone know how the UKMET did with this storm? Writing the page for the wiki, which only has that blank now, and the end result of the storm, which we won't know yet.
 
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