000
WTNT32 KNHC 201433
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017
...BRET FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 64.4W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Venezuela has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Pedernales to Cumana.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Venezuela Isla de Margarita
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 64.4 West. Bret is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tomorrow. On the forecast
track, the center of the tropical storm or its remnants will
continue to move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea for the next
couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening should begin today, and the system is expected to
dissipate on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
to the north of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
warning area, but these conditions should subside later today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by
tonight and Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Bret is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of
Venezuela through today.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila
000
WTNT42 KNHC 201433
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017
The cloud pattern associated with Bret is becoming somewhat
elongated due to southerly wind shear, and consequently, T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB have decreased a little bit. However, Bret
produced sustained surface winds of 40 kt when it passed south of
Grenada several hours ago. On this basis, the initial intensity
is kept at 40 kt in this advisory, but these winds are occuring
only to the north of the center. The intensity forecast remains
unchanged, and the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves toward
a hostile environment of strong southerly shear caused by an
upper-trough in the central Caribbean Sea. Bret will most likely
degenerate into a low or an open trough in a day or so, if not
sooner. This is consistent with most of the dynamical models.
Although the center is difficult to locate, the best estimate of
the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 18
kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterly flow around the
Atlantic subtropical ridge, and Bret will likely continue on this
same general motion until dissipation. This forecast in the middle
of the guidance envelope, and is consistent with the previous NHC
track forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 11.6N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 12.4N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 13.2N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 14.4N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila