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Tropical Tropical Storm Bret

They are in the storm now. Max winds I could find unflagged was 47mph. If they find a closed center, this is a tropical storm.
Sure looks like one to the naked eye -- this is a sneaky little son of a biscuit eater and shouldn't be ignored or dismissed ...
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 191928
AF300 0102A INVEST HDOB 33 20170619
191800 0852N 06011W 9772 00288 //// +211 //// 014010 011 032 003 05
191830 0854N 06011W 9770 00285 0097 +210 //// 028011 013 036 003 01
191900 0855N 06011W 9771 00279 0093 +210 //// 047013 017 051 031 05
191930 0857N 06011W 9763 00287 0095 +212 +212 059011 012 045 027 00
192000 0859N 06011W 9772 00281 0097 +213 +213 043010 011 037 020 00
192030 0901N 06011W 9772 00280 0097 +207 //// 032010 013 041 016 01
192100 0901N 06011W 9772 00280 0097 +215 //// 021009 013 030 006 01
192130 0904N 06011W 9767 00287 //// +215 //// 036009 009 026 001 01
192200 0906N 06011W 9771 00284 //// +217 //// 042010 011 024 000 01
192230 0908N 06011W 9771 00281 //// +214 //// 049013 016 024 000 01
192300 0910N 06011W 9770 00282 //// +216 //// 039015 016 020 002 05
192330 0912N 06011W 9774 00280 0092 +228 +214 041014 015 015 003 03
192400 0912N 06009W 9770 00285 0092 +225 +217 018014 015 020 001 03
192430 0912N 06007W 9770 00281 0089 +225 +218 011013 014 020 001 00
192500 0912N 06005W 9770 00277 0090 +221 +217 002014 014 019 001 00
192530 0912N 06003W 9771 00287 0097 +219 //// 353012 014 020 000 01
192600 0912N 06001W 9772 00286 //// +217 //// 354011 012 022 001 01
192630 0912N 05959W 9770 00286 //// +218 //// 355011 012 023 002 01
192700 0912N 05957W 9770 00285 0094 +221 +219 345011 012 023 001 03
192730 0912N 05955W 9772 00282 //// +220 //// 331012 012 023 000 05
$$
;
 
200800 0930N 05947W 9772 00282 0092 +223 +220 082025 025 028 001 01
200830 0930N 05949W 9771 00281 0090 +225 +216 080027 029 031 000 00
200900 0930N 05951W 9769 00284 //// +210 //// 078030 031 032 002 01
200930 0930N 05953W 9771 00282 0090 +222 +220 077032 032 034 002 05
201000 0930N 05956W 9773 00281 0092 +222 //// 077030 031 035 000 01
201030 0930N 05958W 9772 00281 0090 +229 +229 076028 030 035 000 01
201100 0930N 06000W 9770 00284 //// +223 //// 070031 032 034 000 01
201130 0930N 06002W 9771 00285 //// +219 //// 061029 032 031 001 01
201200 0930N 06004W 9771 00286 //// +216 //// 056030 031 032 002 01
201230 0930N 06006W 9770 00287 //// +215 //// 053032 033 034 002 01
201300 0930N 06008W 9764 00293 0099 +223 //// 050030 033 034 004 01
201330 0930N 06010W 9770 00288 0098 +223 //// 049030 030 030 006 01
201400 0930N 06013W 9770 00290 //// +219 //// 046029 030 032 001 01
201430 0930N 06015W 9771 00290 //// +218 //// 043029 030 032 002 01
201500 0930N 06017W 9772 00291 //// +219 //// 041031 033 032 002 01
201530 0930N 06019W 9771 00292 0104 +221 //// 041030 031 031 002 01
201600 0930N 06021W 9772 00291 //// +219 //// 042029 030 030 001 01
201630 0930N 06023W 9770 00293 0104 +220 //// 043030 031 030 004 01
201700 0930N 06025W 9772 00291 0104 +219 //// 042029 030 031 004 01
201730 0930N 06027W 9771 00292 //// +218 //// 040028 030 033 003 01
$$
;
 
000
WTNT32 KNHC 201433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

...BRET FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 64.4W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Venezuela has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Pedernales to Cumana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Venezuela Isla de Margarita

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 64.4 West. Bret is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tomorrow. On the forecast
track, the center of the tropical storm or its remnants will
continue to move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening should begin today, and the system is expected to
dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
warning area, but these conditions should subside later today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by
tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Bret is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of
Venezuela through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT42 KNHC 201433
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

The cloud pattern associated with Bret is becoming somewhat
elongated due to southerly wind shear, and consequently, T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB have decreased a little bit. However, Bret
produced sustained surface winds of 40 kt when it passed south of
Grenada several hours ago. On this basis, the initial intensity
is kept at 40 kt in this advisory, but these winds are occuring
only to the north of the center. The intensity forecast remains
unchanged, and the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves toward
a hostile environment of strong southerly shear caused by an
upper-trough in the central Caribbean Sea. Bret will most likely
degenerate into a low or an open trough in a day or so, if not
sooner. This is consistent with most of the dynamical models.

Although the center is difficult to locate, the best estimate of
the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 18
kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterly flow around the
Atlantic subtropical ridge, and Bret will likely continue on this
same general motion until dissipation. This forecast in the middle
of the guidance envelope, and is consistent with the previous NHC
track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 11.6N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 12.4N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 13.2N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 14.4N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
 
i8eh1.jpg
 
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