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Tropical Tropical Depression Four

Don't look now but the 12z euro is trying to keep the wave together and take it into the eastern gulf


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There are a couple of eps members that support the euro with the idea of taking 94l into the gulf


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94l
2a6816d5d1b612fe34d80771f01298bf.png



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Interestingly, the 12Z Ukmet has this regenerating into a TC in the E GOM on 7/14 after crossing S FL on Thursday 7/13. Then it moves the TC WNW into the W GOM on 7/16. So, this may end up as the entity to watch more closely in the days upcoming.
 
Euro has more from this than from the African wave(not saying much) with a 1011 mb low south of Pensacola at 168...

maybe some TS force winds
 
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From what I've just read and seen, this at least appears to have regained a low level circulation. But it isn't known if this apparent LLC is yet all of the way down to the surface. Regardless, this definitely bears watching!
 
12z Gfs now bringing moisture into the southeast this weekend thanks to former Tennessee 4


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Arcc said:
Don't know what he is seeing, but all Im seeing is blowup convection greatly enhanced by the big ULL to the NE. No way this will have a shot at developing until you get that beast away.
Click to expand...

The EPS isn't giving this a 70 percent chance of development BTW , he is using different methodology to come up with that number


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I guess someone else besides us think its worth a look-see ... :cool:
(Hope this isn't old news, but with the bevy of posts today, not sure ...)


000
NOUS42 KNHC 101530
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 10 JULY 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z JULY 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-040

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04A
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 11/2100Z
B. AFXXX 0104A INVEST
C. 11/1645Z
D. 23.0N 68.5W
E. 11/2030Z TO 12/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION AT
12/1730Z NEAR 23.5N 72.5W
 
I can see this sysem blowing up off the east coast of Fl before crossing into the gulf. Look at the gfs strengthening the other soon to be storm in that same area.
 
accu35 said:
I can see this sysem blowing up off the east coast of Fl before crossing into the gulf. Look at the gfs strengthening the other soon to be storm in that same area.
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I don't know the waters off the east coast are not boiling . If the old TD 4 does develop it should be a slow process .The Gfs is wrong


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Storm5 said:
I don't know the waters off the east coast are not boiling . If the old TD 4 does develop it should be a slow process .The Gfs is wrong


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Click to expand...
Yeah i forget the gfs is playing castaway right now
 
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