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Misc This Means WAR

It does. If they don't let us use their bases, the whole operation and the actual blockade we have up is hosed.

This is over, we lost. Sorry to state the obvious. The only winners here are the inside traders ;)

This was such an f up that by accident trump aligned iran and sa, lmao
 


A new analysis from the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (
@JerusalemCenter
) argues that the West is trying to do two mutually conflicting things at once:• Prevent a global energy crisis• Cripple the Iranian regimeAccording to researcher Ella Rosenberg, the U.S. is still allowing Iranian oil to reach global markets to avoid spikes in energy prices, while simultaneously trying to financially strangle the IRGC through sanctions.“As long as the West keeps playing on both fields,” Rosenberg warns, “the Iranian regime will continue receiving the oxygen it needs to survive.”
 
Bham 99 said:
How should he go about getting it when he's not putting troops on the ground? Drones? little fairies?
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Its all too late now to do anything once he started a war with no intention of finishing it. Regime change would have accomplished everything and that could still be done but Trump just wants to cut and run now.

 
lexxnchloe said:
Its all too late now to do anything once he started a war with no intention of finishing it. Regime change would have accomplished everything and that could still be done but Trump just wants to cut and run now.
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He's running his mouth too much over this war and not tamed expectations.
 
First US strikes in Iran since the ceasefire ended. Most likely defensive strikes instead of offensive strikes.
 
Shaggy said:
I'm sure thisnwill send oil higher again and we will see the next round of suspicious trades when he again says it's over blah blah blah
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Oh don't worry, if things get too bad, just get an Axios news story saying everything is fine and dandy and oil prices will remain stable.
 
GaWx said:
Gas has dropped back down some in my areas from the highs of Monday.
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It's going to float around a bit but still continue on an upward trend. My company has internal forecasts north of $5 gallon by 7/1. I don't know where the dollar point is where demand destruction caps the price but it's probably north of $6 national average so your more economically productive areas would be looking at $6.50+.

The allocations of industrial supplies are starting to bite us. Industrial orders overall are actually up a bit but the problem is there's already not enough ethylene derivates to go around so they'll be delayed or never fulfilled at all. Even getting polycarbonate is going to be a headache if you're not named GE or Lockheed Martin. The world gets so much more than oil from the Gulf region that we don't realize. Much of that production has been totally offline for 2 months now. There are stocks but those are going to run out, leaving a huge whole in every market that needs raw material from that region.

Who knows if we'll see real shortages in stores but prices are certainly going to rise. Even if everyone sang kumbaya tomorrow it'd take well into 2027 at this point to restore normal commerce. That's not my opinion that's the major industrial trade groups saying it.

We still haven't seen the inflation caused by the war yet as crazy as that sounds. So far it's mostly been "paper" inflation.
 
weather nerd said:
Just wait until the grocery prices catch-up to this war
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Oddly enough the one thing we may see drop in the shorter term are beef prices. That industry is still rebuilding from Covid supply chain wackiness and with grown feed shooting up in price it may make more sense for beef producers to make money while they can. Now the logical end point is AFTER the market glut passes prices will rocket up faster than before.

Maybe the datacenters can feed us.
 
Arcc said:
If this is true, then absolutely the US needs to get out. SA could attack Iran if they needed to and defend themselves.
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Iran is a larger, more populous nation with a well developed and hardened defense industrial base. That might not turn out how you think it would. Yes they've been damaged quite a bit but they're still very capable.
 
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