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Site News The Griteater Snowfall Contest

Belle Lechat said:
Could the .1" for snow on the NWS hourly chart mean it converts to a higher amount, perhaps 1"?

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
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That is liquid. So using a 10:1 ratio it would be approx. 1” of snow, but that’s assuming the ratio was 10:1. Sleet is also counted towards the measurement and we don’t know how much of the next hourly obs .05” would have counted. It’s likely somewhere between 1-1.5” is probably what they got total but there’s no way to precisely tell without the official climate report.
 
1300m said:
That is liquid. So using a 10:1 ratio it would be approx. 1” of snow, but that’s assuming the ratio was 10:1. Sleet is also counted towards the measurement and we don’t know how much of the next hourly obs .05” would have counted. It’s likely somewhere between 1-1.5” is probably what they got total but there’s no way to precisely tell without the official climate report.
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Pretty sure you are on point with that estimate. Looking at my attached pic from someone in Gainesville looks about right with accumulation on the car.

IMG-20250111-WA0001.jpg
 
I’m bored so I looked around for good entries. This one and 1300m stood out to me. Caveat: I probably missed some other good ones.
Sam Sparks said:
Memphis, TN (MEM) - 6.3"
Huntsville, AL (HSV) - 4.7"
Gainesville, GA (GNV) - 1.4"
Greenville, SC (GSP) - 2.1"
Asheville, NC (AVL) - 2.7"
Raleigh, NC (RDU) - 1.5"
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GaStorm said:
Pretty sure you are on point with that estimate. Looking at my attached pic from someone in Gainesville looks about right with accumulation on the car.

View attachment 162781
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I did find this, which suggests 2". Looking at those 5-minute obs provided by @cyclogent it looks like most of the next hours .05" was also snow. So that could theoretically be about 1.5" snow + the sleet they got afterwards. 2.0" does seem on the high end, but it's possible and I'd be fine if that's what we go with (I only forecast 1.1" so wouldn't help me in the competition haha).
Screenshot 2025-01-11 at 10.09.55 AM.png
 
ncjoaquin said:
KAVL- 1.8
GSP- .7
Memphis airport -7.5
Huntsville - 4.3
RDU-.7

Link below by clicking on "climate" for KAVL, GSP just to show the source. The others are also official NWS reports. Gainesville is not reporting. RDU is prior to midnight, so I don't know if more fell since then.


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This is correct / these amounts are correct. Although I didn't specifically say we were using the airport codes, the codes were included in the original post, so that was the intent. My only issue is Gainesville. I used Gainesville because that site typically represents North GA pretty well and ATL airport tends to struggle getting snow on the ground. Also, Gainesville has a great historical record with snowfall. But, what I didn't realize was that the historical record is at a generic "Gainesville" site (I'm guessing a CO-OP site that has been maintaining data for a long time), and looking at the data this morning, it doesn't look like snowfall is recorded at the GVL airport in the historical record. I should have checked that before indicating GVL as the site we were using. My mistake there (I made another mistake in the original post of indicating GNV as the Gainesville airport code when it is GVL - that was discussed in the thread). But anyway, that generic "Gainesville" site reported 2.0 (ATL reported 2.1, haha, could have used it). I used https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ to get the totals. You can see the generic "GAINESVILLE" (all caps) total using that site (same as what 1300m reported above). We will use the 2.0 for Gainesville unless someone can report an official number from the Gainesville airport.

Only remaining issue is whether Asheville or Raleigh added to their totals after midnight, but here are the preliminary numbers (1300m! yo). I suppose it's possible that some of these numbers could have slight adjustments after NWS review, but unlikely I think.

ZosbsLr.png
 
griteater said:
This is correct / these amounts are correct. Although I didn't specifically say we were using the airport codes, the codes were included in the original post, so that was the intent. My only issue is Gainesville. I used Gainesville because that site typically represents North GA pretty well and ATL airport tends to struggle getting snow on the ground. Also, Gainesville has a great historical record with snowfall. But, what I didn't realize was that the historical record is at a generic "Gainesville" site (I'm guessing a CO-OP site that has been maintaining data for a long time), and looking at the data this morning, it doesn't look like snowfall is recorded at the GVL airport in the historical record. I should have checked that before indicating GVL as the site we were using. My mistake there (I made another mistake in the original post of indicating GNV as the Gainesville airport code when it is GVL - that was discussed in the thread). But anyway, that generic "Gainesville" site reported 2.0 (ATL reported 2.1, haha, could have used it). I used https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ to get the totals. You can see the generic "GAINESVILLE" (all caps) total using that site (same as what 1300m reported above). We will use the 2.0 for Gainesville unless someone can report an official number from the Gainesville airport.

Only remaining issue is whether Asheville or Raleigh added to their totals after midnight, but here are the preliminary numbers (1300m! yo). I suppose it's possible that some of these numbers could have slight adjustments after NWS review, but unlikely I think.

ZosbsLr.png
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I would like to say a few things. First, @griteater this was an awesome idea and I really enjoyed it! I really hope we can keep this going. As a state employed meteorologist, I don't think I am allowed to accept these winnings as it could be perceived as a conflict of interest / gift. With that in mind, I will leave it up to the Board of Directors 😂 to decide how to proceed. We could just donate the winnings back to the board to perhaps go towards a model subscription service or just add to the pot for the next one?

Lastly, I want to address something that was said about my forecasting earlier in the storm thread. It actually was my main motivation for even entering this contest. A fellow poster, someone I have never responded to or mentioned in any form, and to be honest, had on ignore because I find their content to be wish-casting and of little value to me said the following a few days ago:

I see 1300m thinks that's funny --shouldn't you be cleaning up the wreckage of your hubris-laden but, as it turned out, complete trainwreck of a forecast?
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Now, I don't bring this up to rub their nose in it (the results speak for themself), but I do want to make something crystal clear. When I come on this forum and discuss the pattern and what this model is doing at 500mb could lead to this, I am, in essence, letting my hair down as a meteorologist and discussing possibilities. Normally, the possibilities are a lot more enticing than what reality ends up being. I do not have the time or energy to discuss every model run, especially the boring ones that are coming to consensus. Somehow, this was severely (intentionally or not) misconstrued by this poster.

When I make a forecast, you'll know it. I'll submit my map, or if someone asks me, I will offer my thoughts then. And please feel free to, I try to respond as much as I can but I know I did miss a few questions recently as the past few days have been crazy with my real job plus tracking this event. I appreciate all of the camaraderie that has been exhibited by 98% of everyone on here and it's what keeps me coming back. We all have a passion and shared love for weather, especially winter weather. Hopefully this will be a lesson for the aforementioned poster to stop taking weather forecasts so personal and not confusing forecast discussion (essentially shop talk) with a professionally developed forecast.
 
griteater said:
Here are all forecasts with a few stats at the bottom. The average forecast was most accurate at Huntsville, least accurate at Greenville and Asheville

I5dragj.png
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Thank you, for taking all of the time and effort you put into this. That was fun.
Congrats @1300m !
 
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