• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TD9

Before things get too fast in here just want to remind everyone that the board covers a large geographic footprint and there may be impacts spread well across the area so there at times could be discussion about how much rain in a location, what is the chance of severe weather, or other aspects away from the immediate path of any tropical system.
 
12Z UKMET: shifts back east from 0Z run’s far SE LA to MS/AL border track to new track into FL Pan for mid-grade TS followed by NNE and then NNW move in AL:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 22.8N 92.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2026 72 24.0N 91.4W 1002 30
0000UTC 09.10.2026 84 25.2N 89.4W 999 34
1200UTC 09.10.2026 96 26.7N 88.0W 996 44
0000UTC 10.10.2026 108 28.7N 86.9W 995 49
1200UTC 10.10.2026 120 32.1N 86.1W 999 26
0000UTC 11.10.2026 132 34.5N 87.3W 1001 26
1200UTC 11.10.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING
 
Last edited:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual
development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system
is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before
it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific
impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should
closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
 
This might be just what the doctor ordered in conjunction with the jet stream to be the drought buster many of us have been hoping for. The late weekend timing should enhance what was a good chance of rain for many of us in the Southeast. Let's hope the wind shear does its thing and keeps hurricane conditions away from the Gulf Coast.
 
weather bubba said:
This might be just what the doctor ordered in conjunction with the jet stream to be the drought buster many of us have been hoping for. The late weekend timing should enhance what was a good chance of rain for many of us in the Southeast. Let's hope the wind shear does its thing and keeps hurricane conditions away from the Gulf Coast.
Click to expand...
It seems that rainfall would be mostly beneficial from this storm. I'd shift the heaviest rainfall axis associated with the core eastward, deferring to the Google model. The forward speed will keep flooding risk minimal, IMO.

Inland winds will likely be higher than one would think, given the forecasted pressure gradient associated with the building CAD. Depending, of course, on how intense the storm makes landfall.
1791225441555.png
 
2 things to watch over the next day or 2 will be how does the convection start to bias, there's a decent signal out there that the next convection may be on the eastern side and tug this east along the old front. Second will be the incoming wave across Texas, the gfs is the most enthusiastic with the cutoff which grabs it early and hooks it left.

Also don't think it's impossible this ends up as some kind of stringy mess left in the gulf
 
Now is the time to get that milk!
Starting to see low stock at Wally World, the ------ Kitty (my father JUST had to restock them this weekend at 2616, HIS LAST one b4 moving to 1344 (the nearest one to our new home)), and Carlie C's!
runrunningGIF.gif
 
snowc said:
Now is the time to get that milk!
Starting to see low stock at Wally World, the ------ Kitty (my father JUST had to restock them this weekend at 2616, HIS LAST one b4 moving to 1344 (the nearest one to our new home)), and Carlie C's!
View attachment 198465
Click to expand...
@SD you can move this to banter if needed.
 
I'm definitely taking a wait and see approach given the conditions this year

I feel like the GFS has been too bullish all season

Should be a good rain event at least over there
 
Last edited:
Rain Cold said:
How can can a 957 mb low exist heading into 50kt of shear?
Click to expand...

Looks like it stays just ahead of the shear, but fully takes advantage of the divergence aloft. Probably a race against time to see if it makes landfall before being fully impacted.

This is where movement at landfall becomes critical. A more northern motion means more eventually shear aloft. A more eastern motion means a much higher landfall potential with its motion paralleling the shear.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like it stays just ahead of the shear, but fully takes advantage of the divergence aloft. Probably a race against time to see if it makes landfall before being fully impacted.

This is where movement at landfall becomes critical. A more northern motion means more eventually shear aloft. A more eastern motion means a much higher landfall potential with its motion paralleling the shear.
Click to expand...
Yeah I get you on that, but it's still going to be getting hit hard unless it's going almost due east, which seems unlikely. I wouldn't say a cat 1 is out of the question, maybe a 2 if everything was perfect, but it still looks like too much shear to me to get a big dog.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top