-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical TD 9
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
Yep... NHC 5pm
"The NHC track forecast at days 4-5 maintains a
consensus approach and shows a slower eastward motion, but future track adjustments are likely as confidence increases."
Henry2326
Member
For what it's worth, HMON has landfall at the GA/SC corner for the 5th run in a row.
Mr.Kevin7575
Member
Guys, don't doubt the euro. I know it's isn't what it used to be, but it's still the best for a reason!
It’s a definite possibility if Humberto leaves it behind. I know someone was mentioning Dennis in 1999 that got left behind by a trough after moving parallel to the coast, sat southeast of Cape Hatteras for a few days before swing back west and landfalling near Myrtle Beach as a strong tropical storm
rburrel2
Member
Is it actually a thing that the Hurricane models do a poor job initializing near by storms? If anything, I’d assume they do better with that compared to globals.
If it gets left behind, the Euro shows some pretty stout ridging building in over top, which would force it back west for a while. It's a plausible solution.
Maybe it stays so weak and disorganized that it doesn't get pulled away as much by Humberto and stays closer to the coast. No model really shows that, though. And conditions don't really favor it.
I don't trust the Euro or the GFS, outside of 72 hours, tbh. Both got an absolute beat-down with this one.
Hurricane season is turning into winter. Go with the model that shows least snow. And go with the model that shows no landfall.
Maybe it stays so weak and disorganized that it doesn't get pulled away as much by Humberto and stays closer to the coast. No model really shows that, though. And conditions don't really favor it.
I don't trust the Euro or the GFS, outside of 72 hours, tbh. Both got an absolute beat-down with this one.
Hurricane season is turning into winter. Go with the model that shows least snow. And go with the model that shows no landfall.
Brent
Member
Lookout Bermuda!
Remember when there were models going to Memphis
Remember when there were models going to Memphis
TD 9 had hardly been moving. This slower than expected movement has increased the chance it will stay away from US:
From the 11PM NHC discussion:
It is
notable to point out the system has been moving slower than
anticipated over the last 12-24 hours, and this could have
significant implications on its ultimate track. Even in the first
48 hours of the track, there is quite a bit of spread in the
north-south direction in both the deterministic and ensemble model
guidance. Faster tracks appear to interact more with the upper-level
trough to the west, resulting in a track closer to the Carolina
coastline, while slower tracks largely miss a direct interaction
with this feature, and turn sharply east faster as Hurricane
Humberto approaches from the east, eroding the mid-level ridging
steering TD9 northward. Because it has been moving slower than
expected, its becoming more likely its ultimate track will fall in
the slower and sharper east camp. In response, the overall track
guidance this cycle shifted slower and further east, and the NHC
track forecast was shifted in that direction.
From the 11PM NHC discussion:
It is
notable to point out the system has been moving slower than
anticipated over the last 12-24 hours, and this could have
significant implications on its ultimate track. Even in the first
48 hours of the track, there is quite a bit of spread in the
north-south direction in both the deterministic and ensemble model
guidance. Faster tracks appear to interact more with the upper-level
trough to the west, resulting in a track closer to the Carolina
coastline, while slower tracks largely miss a direct interaction
with this feature, and turn sharply east faster as Hurricane
Humberto approaches from the east, eroding the mid-level ridging
steering TD9 northward. Because it has been moving slower than
expected, its becoming more likely its ultimate track will fall in
the slower and sharper east camp. In response, the overall track
guidance this cycle shifted slower and further east, and the NHC
track forecast was shifted in that direction.
If this were a winter storm, it’d be time for one of the models to throw the weenies a bone and suck everyone back into paying attention. We will see
Henry2326
Member
I was getting a bit confident until the end of NHC discussion....two important "ifs"....
"Even if this further offshore track pans out, the wind field is
expected to expand quite a bit, and given the expected storm
structure, a risk of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and
wind impacts is still possible for the southeast U.S. coast even if
the storm center remains offshore."
"Even if this further offshore track pans out, the wind field is
expected to expand quite a bit, and given the expected storm
structure, a risk of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and
wind impacts is still possible for the southeast U.S. coast even if
the storm center remains offshore."
Sounds like they are saying regardless of whether or not this ever gets to landfall heavy rain and gusty wind is possible if not likely for central and eastern portions of both North and South Carolina. Along with Eastern Florida and Georgia
Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
Shaggy
Member
Would make sense you'd pack the gradient with that big high over NE and the storm to the south.
0Z UKMET: stays OTS like every other UKMET and every Icon has done.
Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL.
0Z UKMET
ROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 76.4W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2025 0 22.0N 76.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 28.09.2025 12 23.2N 76.9W 1003 35
0000UTC 29.09.2025 24 24.6N 76.7W 1000 32
1200UTC 29.09.2025 36 26.7N 77.1W 998 43
0000UTC 30.09.2025 48 28.5N 77.4W 994 42
1200UTC 30.09.2025 60 29.2N 77.3W 991 38
0000UTC 01.10.2025 72 29.0N 75.9W 989 41
1200UTC 01.10.2025 84 29.7N 73.4W 987 47
0000UTC 02.10.2025 96 30.3N 69.6W 985 57
1200UTC 02.10.2025 108 31.6N 64.5W 984 54
0000UTC 03.10.2025 120 33.5N 59.8W 986 67
1200UTC 03.10.2025 132 34.8N 57.0W 992 48
0000UTC 04.10.2025 144 36.3N 56.0W 995 43
1200UTC 04.10.2025 156 37.7N 54.4W 999 39
0000UTC 05.10.2025 168 41.4N 49.5W 999 41
Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL.
0Z UKMET
ROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 76.4W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2025 0 22.0N 76.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 28.09.2025 12 23.2N 76.9W 1003 35
0000UTC 29.09.2025 24 24.6N 76.7W 1000 32
1200UTC 29.09.2025 36 26.7N 77.1W 998 43
0000UTC 30.09.2025 48 28.5N 77.4W 994 42
1200UTC 30.09.2025 60 29.2N 77.3W 991 38
0000UTC 01.10.2025 72 29.0N 75.9W 989 41
1200UTC 01.10.2025 84 29.7N 73.4W 987 47
0000UTC 02.10.2025 96 30.3N 69.6W 985 57
1200UTC 02.10.2025 108 31.6N 64.5W 984 54
0000UTC 03.10.2025 120 33.5N 59.8W 986 67
1200UTC 03.10.2025 132 34.8N 57.0W 992 48
0000UTC 04.10.2025 144 36.3N 56.0W 995 43
1200UTC 04.10.2025 156 37.7N 54.4W 999 39
0000UTC 05.10.2025 168 41.4N 49.5W 999 41
Man these models are trash. Look how different the 0z Euro is. 
Last edited:
Each run before it inches closer to the coast then this run gets yanked hard to the East
Sent from my A600DL using Tapatalk