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Misc Stock Market

Unreal…I added back what I sold earlier. This market is never going down. 😂

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If the Nasdaq doesn't sell during the typical post-Presidential Day weakness (with NVDA maybe being a catalyst in sell the news fashion), I'm curious on what's going to occur when February headline CPI comes in at 0.5 MoM in March, because that's very likely to be the case (maybe you get back to 0.3 on core, but headline "will" be bad).

The reality is that some of this actually probably is new year price adjustments. If you remember, nothing came of inflation looking like it was bouncing early last year. But I'm thinking another set of bad inflation data might put the TLT and QQQ correlation, the one that is uhh, broken, on track to being back onside.
 
There’s a post on my local community’s Facebook page about someone trying to sell their home by owner and there are hundreds of replies/comments under the post from realtors saying they want to help sell it. “Please I’d love to help.” “Reach out to me” etc.. real estate is so over saturated it’s unbelievable. People are poor. No one is moving. No one is going to move if rates drop to 4-5% because people who bought houses 4+ years ago are married to a 2.5% rate and low house payment. There’s no incentive to move. So my theory is the powers that be will be forced to shake this thing up because if it becomes stagnant it’s bad news. I think a hard landing down the line is inevitable and this is one of my reasons.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There’s a post on my local community’s Facebook page about someone trying to sell their home by owner and there are hundreds of replies/comments under the post from realtors saying they want to help sell it. “Please I’d love to help.” “Reach out to me” etc.. real estate is so over saturated it’s unbelievable. People are poor. No one is moving. No one is going to move if rates drop to 4-5% because people who bought houses 4+ years ago are married to a 2.5% rate and low house payment. There’s no incentive to move. So my theory is the powers that be will be forced to shake this thing up because if it becomes stagnant it’s bad news. I think a hard landing down the line is inevitable and this is one of my reasons.
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The housing market just shouldn't crash, it needs to crash. It needs to crash hard. Houses are extremely overpriced in multiple markets and when the majority of the population holding them dies off they'll really crash since the generations following them will not have as many people. They also really have to get rent under control it's ridiculous how much places charge. We can't keep a big crash off forever no matter who says anything. The market will tank too.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The housing market just shouldn't crash, it needs to crash. It needs to crash hard. Houses are extremely overpriced in multiple markets and when the majority of the population holding them dies off they'll really crash since the generations following them will not have as many people. They also really have to get rent under control it's ridiculous how much places charge. We can't keep a big crash off forever no matter who says anything. The market will tank too.
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I mean I can see a scenario where things drop pretty drastically. People who bought years ago can still have great equity in their homes with a significant market correction. It’s certainly what we need. It does capitalism no good to have the majority of the population walking around house poor. They’re saying the data doesn’t show that the consumer is in a bind right now but I just don’t believe that. I know my spending habits have changed significantly and I’m not special. I have a decent amount of savings and even I am terrified. There’s a stigma out here where we don’t want to talk about these struggles and fears with one another and I think they’re encouraging that stigma with their counter “consumer strong!” propaganda. These are my thoughts.
 
Failed breakout on the Qs...haven't had one of these since August. Of couse, it has to close back into the channel and dip buyers have been relentless for months. Bears are going to start shouting bull trap soon.

Personally I am hoping for a nice long correction but I'm not so sure we get one.


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Brutal setup going into earnings tomorrow for NVDA. Looks like it’s ready to roll over but if they beat and they will have to beat handily it could trap a lot shorts. I ain’t touching it.


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Bought some TQQQ dip here... $54.80...was watching to see if they undercut the morning low and then bounced...hard stop at $54.50.

Unless NVDA earnings have leaked then I doubt the shorts will keep things pressed low into earnings tomorrow. It's going to be very tricky....NVDA could roll the entire market or it could squeeze everything too.

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Dow has passed below the support and now wicking back off the retest
sold out on the mini inverted h&S 2 cents is better than a loss
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KyloG said:
Bought some TQQQ dip here... $54.80...was watching to see if they undercut the morning low and then bounced...hard stop at $54.50.

Unless NVDA earnings have leaked then I doubt the shorts will keep things pressed low into earnings tomorrow. It's going to be very tricky....NVDA could roll the entire market or it could squeeze everything too.

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Closed out 2/3 of this at $55.70 from $54.80...nice bounce. Will keep the other 1/3 overnight.

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dow futures showing a double top head shoulders look
dow closed with a inverted h&s look probably will bounce the wedge once more, I have a feeling this will be the final nail in the coffin. just doesn't look strong with the hr hovering and keeps falling below the 200 on the hr chat
atm i have a sizable short.. just feels different. 1708474160493.png1708473837257.png
 
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RoddyPiper said:
What are your thoughts on NVDA today?
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I’m a gambler and I’d like to gamble it. Best guess is they try to run it up a bit into earnings after close but either way I’d fade todays direction if I were playing earnings. Please don’t listen to me though
 
KyloG said:
One of the days/weeks/months China trade might be appetizing. It hasn't done anything for years.

I remember back in early 2021 I met with a financial advisor whose recommendation was to sell tech stocks and buy foreign equities, including China. She was right on tech, somewhat...tech just broke out from it's 2021 ATH but China scares me.

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That was pretty much the bottom and still haven't positioned in China yet. I should have put a starter in with FXI

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