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Severe Weather November 29th

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Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with wind damage and tornadoes, along with some
hail, will be possible from the Sabine River Valley and lower
Mississippi Valley north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday. A significant severe-weather event will be likely
across parts of the region.

...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Sabine River Valley/Eastern
Ozarks...
A highly progressive upper-level trough will move quickly into the
southern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a
broad 40 to 60 knot low-level jet will transport low-level moisture
northward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, where
surface dewpoints should reach the lower to mid 60s by midday. In
response to moisture advection and surface heating, moderate
instability is forecast to develop by early afternoon across much of
east Texas and Louisiana. Isolated to scattered convective
initiation will be possible in the early afternoon from near the
instability axis eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. A
severe threat will be possible with this activity.

Moisture will continue to advect northward into the eastern Ozarks
and mid Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early
evening. This will set up a broad corridor of moderate instability
across much of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. As the
upper-level trough approaches from the west, the low-level jet is
expected to strengthen into the 50 to 70 knot range by early
evening. This combined with increasing deep-layer shear, associated
with an approaching southern Plains mid-level jet, will make
conditions very favorable for severe thunderstorms across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley. NAM forecast soundings along the axis of
strongest instability, from northeast Louisiana into eastern
Arkansas, by 03Z Wednesday have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range, with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range. This combined
with a long and looped hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative
helicities in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range, will be favorable for
supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible
with the more dominant supercells that remain discrete. The most
favorable area for strong tornadoes may develop along the western
edge of the low-level jet, as is forecast by the ECMWF, from eastern
Arkansas into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. A tornado
outbreak will be possible across parts of the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley, if the current forecast parameters, such as
instability, deep-layer shear and low-level shear remain at current
forecast levels.

In addition to the tornado threat, the potential for wind damage
will likely increase during the evening as storm coverage and the
chance for cell interactions increase. Mid-level lapse rates are
also expected to be steep, which should support a hail threat with
the more intense cells. The extent of moisture return will determine
how far north-northeast the severe threat develops. At this time, it
appears that at least some severe threat will be possible during the
evening and overnight period as far north as southern Illinois and
southwest Indiana. A categorical upgrade will be possible in later
outlooks.

..Broyles.. 11/27/2022
 
tennessee storm said:
MEG is now saying a tornado ? outbreak possible shaping up late Tuesday in to the night . Strong tornadoes likely . Folks that pretty agressive forecast from a usually conservative forecaster for meg
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Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Have been trying to keep up with the conversation regarding this event on Twitter. Would be great to see some more detailed opinions on here as well. Do we see more a high end event unfold or does this have bust potential written all over it?
 
NWMSGuy said:
Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Have been trying to keep up with the conversation regarding this event on Twitter. Would be great to see some more detailed opinions on here as well. Do we see more a high end event unfold or does this have bust potential written all over it?
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Meg is question some instability , but even latest guidance has slowly increased that far north as my tn state line … pushing 1200 cape values … remember this is also considered cool season setup. Won’t take a high end instability of cape . Low lever shear is off charts with increasing overhead jet
 
tennessee storm said:
Meg is question some instability , but even latest guidance has slowly increased that far north as my tn state line … pushing 1200 cape values … remember this is also considered cool season setup. Won’t take a high end instability of cape . Low lever shear is off charts with increasing overhead jet
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True. Even considering the past couple years with some of these storms, the wind damage alone has been problematic enough.
 
Winds picked up "quite a bit" this afternoon, here on the SENC Coast.. With the Low Level Jet (stream)? winds mixing down too the surface..
ILM NWS Obs..NWS.jpg
 
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Well I'll say this, nam 3km. Is very isolated in storm coverage not your typical QCLS spin up or. Broken line ordeal.

Low level lapse rates will be a issue. Especially with timing.
 
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Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with tornadoes and wind damage, along with some
hail, will be likely on Tuesday afternoon and evening, extending
into the overnight period across parts of the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley. Significant and/or long-track tornadoes will be
possible.

...Regional Tornado Outbreak Possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening
Across Parts of the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...

...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Sabine River Valley/Western Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys...
A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across
the Rockies Tuesday and into the Great Plains. Ahead of the system,
a moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F,
will advect northward across the lower and mid Mississippi Valleys.
Thunderstorm development will be likely during the day on the
eastern edge of the most airmass, from the central Gulf Coast states
northward into the western Ohio Valley. While elevated, an isolated
severe threat will be possible with some of this convection. Further
to the southwest, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop by mid to late afternoon from northwest Louisiana
northeastward into far eastern Arkansas. This airmass should
continue to destabilize during the evening, as rich low-level
moisture streams north-northeastward, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range by 03Z Wednesday across parts of northern
Louisiana, southeast Arkansas and northwest Mississippi.
Surface-based convective initiation appears likely to occur during
the late afternoon and early evening in northern Louisiana, with
these storms tracking northeastward across far southeast Arkansas
and into northwest Mississippi.

Throughout the day on Tuesday, deep-layer shear will steadily
increase across the region as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet
translates quickly eastward across the south-central U.S. This jet
is forecast to move through the base of the trough at around 55
knots, which will help sustain a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet ahead
of the system. NAM forecast soundings along the most favorable
corridor from far northeast of Monroe, Louisiana to near Memphis,
Tennessee at 03Z Wednesday, have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative
helicities around 400 m2/s2. Hodographs are forecast to be long and
curved, suggesting the environment will be favorable for tornadic
supercells. A long-track and/or significant tornadoes will be
possible, with the most favorable corridor located from far
northeast Louisiana northeastward across northwest Mississippi. An
earlier and further southwest convective initiation would be most
favorable for a tornado outbreak, which would give the storms more
time to move northeastward through the most unstable air. Supercells
will also have potential for wind damage and isolated large hail.
During the mid to late evening, a strengthening low-level jet should
help maintain the severe threat across the region. A threat for
tornadoes, wind-damage and hail will be possible with supercells and
with organized bowing line segments from mid evening into the early
overnight period.

Further northeast into north-central Tennessee, western Kentucky and
far southern Illinois, moisture advection during the early to mid
evening, will likely increase dewpoints into the lower 60s F. As a
cold front approaches from the west, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the moist sector. Although instability is
forecast to be weak ahead of the front, large-scale ascent should be
very focused due to the approaching trough. This combined with
strong deep-layer shear should support a severe threat, with wind
damage and a few tornadoes possible.

..Broyles.. 11/28/2022
 
06z 3km nam is a little eye opening. A expansion east in severe coverage is likely I'f it's correct. Also very bullish with cape and high 60s few points over a good chunk of the MS delta area into portions of west alabama
 
Why does the threat always sneak into the western half of Alabama as events get closer ?. Lot of mini kidney beans all across the board in the south
 
12z CAMs will be some big stuff. Ready to see WRF 12z runs which should be completed in a few hours I think
 
Anyone know anything about this model? Please take this with a grain of salt doesn’t look right but was wondering if it has any respect by any Mets.001BA731-89DA-400D-93A5-D6C4CBB7632F.jpeg
 
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Usmeagle2005 said:
Anyone know anything about this model? Please take this with a grain of salt doesn’t look right but was wondering if it has any respect by any Mets.
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Hit or miss, it's done spectacular for some events aka the Carolina outbreak what last year or this past spring and then it's failed miserably on other events. More so a interesting thing to see where the best parameters may setup imo. Seems this model thinks south MS will be the hotzone.
 
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