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Severe Severe weather 5-1-22

U

upstatewx

That weather guy
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I’m fairly new here. If this thread isn’t allowed remove it.

But western Carolinas Sunday a short wave is coming through. Looks to me like there moderate shear and high cape values. I believe there gonna be a severe weather risk in the western Carolinas maybe north Georgia as well. I know sometimes the Nam can overdue it but it’s got my attention.

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Nam 3km isn’t exactly excited but this looks good to me, H5 energy aloft moving thru during peak heating should mean decent coverage and moderate instability in place as well, with some degree of mid level flow for organized convection. mid level lapse rates have trended up quite a bit as well, which increases the large hail Threat as well 011B2BB0-3042-41D0-90CD-83BCB1051832.png09E2DF66-5704-45D5-999E-1BE450E37BA5.png3FF3CAF4-A254-458B-8A3E-481A6F7F6404.png96D28D64-E0FF-41F5-8310-B10B1A808203.png
 
GSP -


.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 PM Friday: A short wave rotates around and upper low over
the Great Lakes and across our area Sunday. This pushes an
associated cold front across the area. Warm temps and increasing
moisture ahead of this system will lead to an increase in
instability. Some shear will be present as well, though the guidance
disagrees on how high both values get. Still, with the increase in
moisture, instability, and forcing, expect an average of likely
showers and scattered thunderstorms, with the potential for a few to
become strong or even severe. Lows Saturday night will be around 5
degrees above normal. Highs Sunday near normal across the mountains
and up to 5 degrees above normal elsewhere.
 


I'm pretty intrigued with tomorrows setup, at least locally here in Virginia. Shortwave trough enters the region during peak heating providing sufficient lift for convection. Moisture shouldn't be an issue, but I do question the extent of dews the NAM shows. It has a noticeable moisture bias so for now considering its depiction of thermo to be on the high end.

More interesting is the presence of a warm front providing easterlies/ENE-erlies. The resultant enhancement of streamwise vorticity may allow a supercell or two to form along the boundary. Right now tentatively planning to target the Rt 460 corridor near Lynchburg (which just got placed under a marginal with todays D2 update.)
 
Fishing tournament in the morning on lake hartwell(Anderson/Pickens sc). I don't get into severe wx unless it directly impacts me. Thoughts of tstorms tomorrow?
 
Oconeexman said:
Fishing tournament in the morning on lake hartwell(Anderson/Pickens sc). I don't get into severe wx unless it directly impacts me. Thoughts of tstorms tomorrow?
Click to expand...

Scattered but mostly afternoon. What does develop could become severe.


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