Snowflowxxl
Member
Figured it was time to get this thing started with Spring right around the corner.
Post severe weather thoughts below!
Post severe weather thoughts below!
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Severe Severe Weather 2019
- Thread starter Snowflowxxl
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tennessee storm
Member
First. Thanks for starting this topic... since winter is pretty much shot... perfect timing with this ... significant severe wx threat for this Saturday across mid south lower ms valley ... spc has highlighted threat already in the 4 to 8 day range ... euro been bullish with bombing crossing central Missouri with string shear and instability
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Snowflowxxl
Member
Saturday is definitely starting to get people’s attention. Will have to see if the models hold on to the solution.
Ok so let’s get started... sounding from the gfs on a late Saturday afternoon in northern central Mississippi, this already screams HSLC, there will be lots of cloud cover around, poor mid level lapses but dew points will be pretty elevated, this will probably allow for some skinny CAPE to develop, there is some decent LLvL shear and SRH, probably gonna be some low cloud bases, and there is some dry air trying to sneak in aloft which would allow for stronger downdrafts but it’s still a pretty moist column, interesting setup for sure, I wanna see what Short range models say, they typically bump up instability 
Pretty concerning sounding from northern Louisiana based off the gfs 
Snowflowxxl
Member
NWMSGuy
Member
Anyone have any detailed thoughts on this potential event? How serious is this looking right now?
tennessee storm
Member
Going over data today ... the tornado ? threat has Increasd ... particular ark la Tex most midsouth areas ... into west ky even... 70ktjet over head with the midsouth just to the right side quadrant bolds trouble ... afternoon timing also ... get closer get into more detail... models hold sever through the week ... it should be the biggest weather maker news this week .... legit thus far ....much larger warm sector to work with being modeled today also ....
Snowflowxxl
Member
SPC at day 4 now mentioning the possibility of strong tornadoes.
Welp. (Northern Mississippi) This is the NAM, anyways it has stronger LLvL shear and that’s a decent supercellular sounding right here, winds veering bring in WAA from the SW, pretty nasty hodo, 750-1000 jkg of sfc/MLcape is more than enough for supercells to develop, that little dry layer enhancing lapses and adding to stronger downdraft potential (DCAPE), still there is some limiting factors like a pretty skinny CAPE sounding and probably some early morning cloud cover lingering
Looking at that sounding again, you can actually see some backing just below 500 hPa
I was sound asleep, but I'm told we had a major thunderstorm roll through last night! 10 days to snow!
Snowflowxxl
Member
Looks like were are going to have to wait till Mid-March at the earliest for our next potential threat.
Shoot it may be our fail of a winter storm when we get severe wx ! ?
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS and Euro both hinting at Severe possibilities for a large portion of the southeast next weekend. Will be worth monitoring throughout the week.
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS looks menacing for next weekend to say the least...
Snowflowxxl
Member
EURO is a large scale event next weekend. Good model concencus.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Models continue to hint at a possible threat around Thursday of next week.
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS still showing a severe threat for next Wednesday/Thursday period.
Seems pretty useful
Shows how much 3CAPE matters in these events
Snowflowxxl
Member
Late March will be a timeframe to watch... GFS goes boom
Very dangerous look from 228hr-278hrs or so on the 18z GFS. The first system in this time frame is the "primer" system with a deep bermuda ridge over the Atlantic which sets up the second system. The second system is too amped verbatim, but that will be the system to watch assuming it verifies like that. The same setup happens again later on in the run as well.
Yep, constant ULLs/troughs digging in the SW than pivoting like that don’t bode well, central Plains aren’t gonna escape severe wx Forever either
Flagging next Sunday as the big threat to watch. Looking at last nights Euro, the Thursday/Friday system occludes and the front never makes it though the SE, which would make it a good primer system for the next s/w in the weekend.
I am locking this thread down and we will keep the discussion for this in the Monthly thread or the specific dates.
Thanks.
Thanks.
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