Detective WX
Member
Could be a doozy in the Mid-south region, likely comparable to 5/25/11 and 5/4/03. SPC has 30% risk on day 4.
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Severe Severe Thread May 4-6
- Thread starter Detective WX
- Start date
Kind of surprised spc didn't expand the threat farther east on D4 along the warm front and highlight areas farther east on D5 but I assume those will be coming in later outlooks.
tennessee storm
Member
tennessee storm
Member
Also looks to me the 30 percent zone will be slightly further east also… gfs pans out mode will be super cellular
HSVweather
Member
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Speed shear is pretty meager across Alabama. Directional is fantastic, with really good placement of 500mb trough and westerly winds.
Could be a pretty active day southeast of that day 4 , 30% area. A decent adjustment will probably be made in the coming days.
Some big hail will be a issue along with wind damage though.
Could be a pretty active day southeast of that day 4 , 30% area. A decent adjustment will probably be made in the coming days.
Some big hail will be a issue along with wind damage though.
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Not gonna lie, the NAM is pretty impressive across the SE and the GFS is close.
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Zander98al
Guest
Perfect 500mb position. If the the WRF signals something then I'm going to get on board this ship. Just when we get into may we really start to lack the dynamics.
Edit; just checked the newest model suite of the NAM heck Alabama is looking good. Still going to wait a bit. Stacked lows as well.
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Zander98al
Guest
@#$&, check this sounding for central Alabama Friday. Woa.
OKC might double the year to date rainfall total in the first 5 days of May. Had only about 6 inches up to May 1st. Since then have had over 2 inches yesterday and could get another 2-4 inches with this system. Much needed given how dry late last year and this year has been up to this week.
HSVweather
Member
Brent
Member
New Day 1 has the highest tornado probabilities just to my south. They do mention major uncertainty on how far north the warm front gets. I'm still much more concerned about the flood threat locally but it will be interesting to see if some sneaky cells can get close 
HSVweather
Member
Brent
Member
Already a loud start
I think best chance of any tornado activity today is going to be just south of the warm front if any warm sector supercells develop. HRRR from time to time has been showing supercell development in close proximity to the warm front which could enhance tornado potential. Aside from that most everything else looks messy today.
This is getting hard to ignore. The nam 12km/3km differ in speed but have high end parameters. the HRW looks like a blend between the 2 with supercells along the warm front and then along the front, with otherwise multicellular stuff along the CF. Where that triple point like stuff sets up is still a question. Lots of Sfc backing with very very large instability and drying aloft in it.
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Zander98al
Guest
FV3 Is i about 12 hours faster than the nam 3km which puts a kink in forecasting. Either way if it's faster looks more of a Georgia eastward event slower a more Mississippi and Alabama. Probably will be a bit of a blend. WRF is right on the cusp and looks to be a bit slower.
Very good dnyamics in a climatology of usually high instability, usually these lows travel more north than this. WRF almost has a sub 100mb low.
Moderate risk now for parts of TX and SW OK today.
