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Misc September Segue

By day 10 the Euro has a cold front moving through the region, dews dropping into the 40s-50s moving in. Dews in the 30s in the plains!
 
Can we have this in January
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SD said:
Eps has a nice taste of fall right after labor day weekend

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Yeah, we've had 3-4 tastes of fall on models , only to not materialize ! Take this weekend for example, was supposed to be cooler and dryer, even since last Friday , and have had upper 80s and 60+ dp's! :(
 
Today was nice. Made it to 82 then was back in the 70s by 5pm with a stout east wind.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Im trying to figure out why it shows more rain for Atlanta than it does Jackson, MS. You would think Jackson would be in a more favorable location since its closer to the track of Harvey.
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Shake N Bake
 
Hope springs eternal on the temps not being bad as we move into September :cool:, but medium range precip for those who need it was not dealt in this hand of cards :confused: ...

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif
 
Sitting here with temp in the mid 60s in the middle of the afternoon August with a nice NE breeze to boot. Think we maxed out like at 72 or 73 yesterday. Loving it!
 
Just a question for the experts? With Harvey, 93L any other TC out there, can Powerful TC pull the troughs deeper and sharper with much cooler air? Idk i was always told that TC can help set stage for a good Fall/winter.
 
accu35 said:
Just a question for the experts? With Harvey, 93L any other TC out there, can Powerful TC pull the troughs deeper and sharper with much cooler air? Idk i was always told that TC can help set stage for a good Fall/winter.
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Just wondering because Gfs/Euro has been showing some seriously deep troughs lately
 
accu35 said:
Just a question for the experts? With Harvey, 93L any other TC out there, can Powerful TC pull the troughs deeper and sharper with much cooler air? Idk i was always told that TC can help set stage for a good Fall/winter.
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Indeed, a recurving TC can combine with an individual trough and make it deeper. I don't know about that setting the stage for a colder winter, however. I don't know of any connection that has been proven.
 
accu35 said:
Just a question for the experts? With Harvey, 93L any other TC out there, can Powerful TC pull the troughs deeper and sharper with much cooler air? Idk i was always told that TC can help set stage for a good Fall/winter.
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This is wholly unscientific, and I am no expert, as we all know, but ...

First, there are so many variables that go into making a winter. We've seen it very cold with a +NAO and with a -PNA and with ...; and we've seen it warm with a -NAO, +PNA, etc. So, I suggest, one variable does not a winter make. And that observation/theorem would, I propose, goes to T/Cs impacting winter in a given year.

Second, take a look at last winter with Hermine and Matthew squarely affecting us in the SE; what did that buy? Rhetorical question, perhaps.

I ran composites on the winters after Cleo (much like Matthew), Kate (much like Hermine), Katrina (similar in ways to Harvey, I suppose), and also blended Cleo (1964) and Kate (1985) {just to see where that might lead}, and all the results with T/C's being the only variable show nothing but "normal". Remember, of course, that 1964, 1985, 2005, and last year, all had many drivers impacting winter's eventual unfolding and outcome.
Here's the composites, for what little they are worth:

Cleo -

cd174.64.77.18.240.14.34.8.prcp.png


Kate -

cd174.64.77.18.240.14.35.23.prcp.png


Katrina -

cd174.64.77.18.240.14.35.57.prcp.png



Cleo and Kate combined -

cd174.64.77.18.240.14.36.52.prcp.png


Bottom line - there are far more forces at work than a T/C needed to make a good winter ...

Just my 2¢
 
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Well, I sure hope what I just saw in kicks and giggles land on the GFS (albeit the updated version) does not verify. The temps predicted are amazing but it has one heck of a tropical system.
 
Euro has 50s in Dallas at the end of next week. I can't remember the last time it was in the 50s here(or even below upper 60s)

Sign me up... lol
 
Brent said:
Euro has 50s in Dallas at the end of next week. I can't remember the last time it was in the 50s here(or even below upper 60s)

Sign me up... lol
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So ready for it
 
GFS has mid and upper 50s here starting this Saturday for a few nights then another front apparently then next week with lower and middle 50s. Looks like Mother Nature is hyped up on coffee...lots going on.


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Will the SD rain shield hold or will it finally be obliterated? Thanks to some Harvey moisture enhanced showers/storms...

gfs_apcpn_seus_15.png
 
SD said:
Rah and spc really honking the severe threat friday

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I saw this earlier, looking at the NAM and sure looks like could be a tornado or two

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Rain is a nice change of pace!
 
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