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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

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NWS RAH has issued flash flood watches for the CWA southeast of the Triangle for the potential of 2-5" of rain (& locally heavier amounts). This rain could certainly make its way towards RDU, gonna be a tough call for the eastern piedmont...
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Webberweather53 said:
NWS RAH has issued flash flood watches for the CWA southeast of the Triangle for the potential of 2-5" of rain (& locally heavier amounts). This rain could certainly make its way towards RDU, gonna be a tough call for the eastern piedmont...
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GFS keeps most of the heavy rain right inside of the FFW area but it also looked to have shifted west again this run....
 
metwannabe said:
GFS keeps most of the heavy rain right inside of the FFW area but it also looked to have shifted west again this run....
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Yeah, the GEFS & EPS are still a lot further west of the operational GFS & bring some rain even as far west as Charlotte and the Triad... The operational probably confining the precipitation shield too close to the NW side of the cyclone as usual...
 
All this looks great!!
 
Recon's finding close to TS force winds but still not sure there is a well defined center yet....
 
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STILL WITH NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER...
...AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING...
 
ForsythSnow said:
If there is a closed center, the best chances of finding one is close to the coast.
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I agree but otherwise it's still a mess, I can't find a well defined circulation with radar that's for sure.... either way rain starting to expand NW so some folks still gonna get some beneficial rains I think
 
Along with a host of other guidance, the RAP continues to shift the precipitation shield NWward in the short range, brining more considerable rain into the east-central piedmont of NC.
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Webberweather53 said:
Along with a host of other guidance, the RAP continues to shift the precipitation shield NWward in the short range, brining more considerable rain into the east-central piedmont of NC.
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Fairly significant shifts too.... certainly something to watch
 
Looks like there is a sort of closed circulation. Winds around it seem decent enough to support a depression. However, this circulation is much further SW than the designate one.
 
If there is a center trying to get organized it looks like it is just to the NE of the Fl/Ga line...
 
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How much for Jonesboro ?
 
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE DISTURBANCE POORLY
ORGANIZED...
...CHANCES TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ARE DIMINISHING...
 
The sref plume has a floor of around 1 and a max near 8. If I fall anywhere within that it'll be a victory given how dry the models looked 3 days ago

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Rah is getting on board with heavy rain farther west
The low level PV accompanying the low(s) already along the NC coast may result in stronger than model-simulated moisture transport/isentropic upglide into the Coastal Plain and ne Piedmont, which may result in periods of moderate to heavy rain farther west than previously forecast

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SD said:
Rah is getting on board with heavy rain farther west
The low level PV accompanying the low(s) already along the NC coast may result in stronger than model-simulated moisture transport/isentropic upglide into the Coastal Plain and ne Piedmont, which may result in periods of moderate to heavy rain farther west than previously forecast

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you left out this part... "into Halifax, Nash, Warren, and Franklin counties, for example" lol
Rain already breaking out further west, HRRR almost hints at heavier band up into Va... only we could screw this up
 
SD said:
The sref plume has a floor of around 1 and a max near 8. If I fall anywhere within that it'll be a victory given how dry the models looked 3 days ago

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Looks like they have come down some but still around 1.5 mean
 
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