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Pattern October Oven 2024

J.C. said:
So are we going to go the entire month of October without a single drop of rain? Where the hell are the weather systems?
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I think I’m fine with it for the first time. Helene did me in and I’m just now done cleaning up the basement.
 
Twister said:
Well not sure about y'all but we just had 4 months worth of rain in like 2 days!

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I'm sure water tables are fine after Helene, its just bizarre. One real rain event in two months, and a real shot to record 0.00 in October.
 
Not a fan of the wind gust across the mtns next few days. My heart aches for whats happening up there.
There is a ton of dry mud,soil, open areas left behind from all the slides. Eventually another decent rain maker will show up and aggrevate left behind scars. On the flip side,its fire season. So these low DP days have tons of fuel lyeing around . Throw in the cold air just a lot of salt on the wound days ahead I'm afraid.

It will snow and probablly accum on the west face slopes, or be noticeable when the sun rises wed morning.

Half of Mitchell County still has no power
 
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Many of us will have chances of frost next week. We'll need some decent radiational cooling. This is a time where the models don't do as well as "real" people. Below is part of RAH's overnight discussion. Just need those winds to die down.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM Monday...

As the potent mid/upper trough moves through central NC on Wednesday
morning, continue a slight chance of rain in the SE just from 12-
15z. All model guidance continues to indicate that any rain amounts
would be very light. Behind the passage of the trough, the flow
aloft will quickly turn NW and allow for much drier air to filter
in, resulting in mostly sunny skies everywhere by the afternoon. As
Canadian high pressure shifts east from the Central Plains to the TN
Valley and ridges into central NC, the surface flow will also be
from the NW. This CAA will result in temperatures only reaching the
upper-50s to lower-60s on Wednesday, which is 10-15 degrees below
normal. The chilly conditions will continue on Wednesday night, when
low-level thicknesses in the 1310-1320 m range suggest lows in the
mid-to-upper-30s in urban areas and lower-30s in outlying areas that
radiate well. The ~1030 mb surface high being centered to our west
may still allow for a little stirring and prevent perfect
radiational cooling conditions, but it will be quite chilly
regardless. Frost will certainly be possible in some areas, and
Frost Advisories may be needed eventually.
 
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