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Pattern October Oven 2024

This dry weather is reminding me of my days living in California. Im sure there’s been periods this dry since I moved to Nashville in 2006 but it’s been so long I can’t remember it. I just worry about fires especially as the dew points and humidity start to really go down in November. If not for the hurricane it would be multiple months without rainfall here.
 
J.C. said:
I guess let’s see how long this pattern can last. More boat days are definitely in my future.
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I’ve been enjoying the last few days and have had some very enjoyable walks.

Upcoming for the US as a whole: The rest of October through Nov 2nd is forecasted by the latest Euro ensemble mean to have near record low US pop weighted HDDs for the period (on left) <1/2 the normal. That means for CDDs (on right) near record high levels for the same period (3 times the normal). To put it into a different perspective, normally HDDs are 8 times as high as CDDs for this period, but they’re forecasted to be only 1.25 times as high!

The purple line is based on the 12Z Euro ensemble mean (yellow was the 0Z). The dashed green lines are normals:

IMG_0508.png
 
olhausen said:
This dry weather is reminding me of my days living in California. Im sure there’s been periods this dry since I moved to Nashville in 2006 but it’s been so long I can’t remember it. I just worry about fires especially as the dew points and humidity start to really go down in November. If not for the hurricane it would be multiple months without rainfall here.
Click to expand...
 
Yeah, over a foot three weeks ago and not a drop since....and if the long range pans out it'll be 5 weeks with nothing. Bing and purge. Hard to get frozen precip without precip. It's need to moisten up some by Jan., lol. Climo says dry, but this is over doing it.
 
dsaur said:
Yeah, over a foot three weeks ago and not a drop since....and if the long range pans out it'll be 5 weeks with nothing. Bing and purge. Hard to get frozen precip without precip. It's need to moisten up some by Jan., lol. Climo says dry, but this is over doing it.
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Tony, Your moles know what La Nina can bring in terms of dryness once the tropics have lost their influence on the SE. Their wx awareness is impressive! ;)
 
GaWx said:
I’ve been enjoying the last few days and have had some very enjoyable walks.

Upcoming for the US as a whole: The rest of October through Nov 2nd is forecasted by the latest Euro ensemble mean to have near record low US pop weighted HDDs for the period (on left) <1/2 the normal. That means for CDDs (on right) near record high levels for the same period (3 times the normal). To put it into a different perspective, normally HDDs are 8 times as high as CDDs for this period, but they’re forecasted to be only 1.25 times as high!

The purple line is based on the 12Z Euro ensemble mean (yellow was the 0Z). The dashed green lines are normals:

View attachment 153388
Click to expand...
Very interesting stuff, admittedly something I didn’t know anything about. Needless to say, this sounds like a pretty unique time period.

Thanks for sharing!
 
GaWx said:
I’ve been enjoying the last few days and have had some very enjoyable walks.

Upcoming for the US as a whole: The rest of October through Nov 2nd is forecasted by the latest Euro ensemble mean to have near record low US pop weighted HDDs for the period (on left) <1/2 the normal. That means for CDDs (on right) near record high levels for the same period (3 times the normal). To put it into a different perspective, normally HDDs are 8 times as high as CDDs for this period, but they’re forecasted to be only 1.25 times as high!

The purple line is based on the 12Z Euro ensemble mean (yellow was the 0Z). The dashed green lines are normals:

View attachment 153388
Click to expand...
Either way, even if above average the weather should be pleasant! These dry days and cool nights are heavenly. Put on a sweater at night and shorts in the day
 
GaWx said:
Tony, Your moles know what La Nina can bring in terms of dryness once the tropics have lost their influence on the SE. Their wx awareness is impressive! ;)
Click to expand...
Larry, it looks like you'll be having many pleasant walks going forward! Just hope we aren't having to deal with lots of dry cold. I'd prefer 33 and rain, if I had my druthers.
 
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