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Pattern October Oscitance

I think we may actually be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel on the Euro, it's been hinting at it for the last several runs
 
GaWx said:
I think Ventrice’s tweet is either confusing or maybe even not entirely correct. The 6Z and 18Z Euro runs will stop at only hour 90.
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As I posted over in the tropical forum, it's true the Euro runs 6Z and 18Z are 144 hour, or 6 day runs. The hourly portion only goes to 90 hours, so we will have each hour (1 - 90) available. Here's Ryan Maue's tweet about it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
As I posted over in the tropical forum, it's true the Euro runs 6Z and 18Z are 144 hour, or 6 day runs. The hourly portion only goes to 90 hours, so we will have each hour (1 - 90) available. Here's Ryan Maue's tweet about it.
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Well, I was told that by a pro met and also this is what it says for 6Z and 18Z per mrdaddyman’s link (note that this says it runs only for 21 minutes and only for the 1st 90 hours):

  • 0 to 90 by 1
  • 11:52 --> 12:13
  • S
So, could Ventrice and Maue both be misinterpreting or is the met I asked misinterpreting?
 
GaWx said:
Well, I was told that by a pro met and also this is what it says for 6Z and 18Z per mrdaddyman’s link (note that this says it runs only for 21 minutes and only for the 1st 90 hours):

  • 0 to 90 by 1
  • 11:52 --> 12:13
  • S
So, could Ventrice and Maue both be misinterpreting or is the met I asked misinterpreting?
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Yeah, that might be the case. I read closely and it seems that the runs only will go to 90 hours, unless somehow Ventrice and Maue have some other information the pro met you talked to involving later times, but I'm now inclined to think that it only will go to 90 hours.

Regardless of the outcome, I'm glad we will have some kind of output on the Euro 4 times a day. Will be good to use in the winter time.
 
Looking at the Euro, and to a degree the other models, the temperature anomalies are starting to look el nino ish...
 
You know, used to we could count on the GFS for some fantasy good news.... what happened?
 
Probably the 2nd half of October at this point folks. Eventually


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Temps from recent weak/mod nino's. Really don't see solid BN temps until Feb. It's only 7 years and we know how cold 09/10 was. Not the most uplifting news if you want cold/snow before February.

NinoTemps.gif
 
Sunday-Wednesday would seem like a light at the end of the tunnel, but after that, nope and it looks like Leslie helps the SE ridge strengthen.
 
Well the chances of the next 5 months being above average, are better than average!? We couldn’t have a whole winter season without a below normal month, correct??
 
Tarheel1 said:
Well the chances of the next 5 months being above average, are better than average!? We couldn’t have a whole winter season without a below normal month, correct??
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Considering everyone was panicking about not having a winter last year and it turned out to be a great winter, I’m not concerned at all. The pattern will flip, it’s just some years it takes longer to than others.
 
62FB04BF-7607-4A89-9541-B9D0D0D19259.png Santa might want to move his HQ to Antarctica. This is the epitome of “Death Ridge” ... Jeebus
 
RollTide18 said:
Considering everyone was panicking about not having a winter last year and it turned out to be a great winter, I’m not concerned at all. The pattern will flip, it’s just some years it takes longer to than others.
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Yep this literally happens every year but seems to be happening earlier and earlier as far as winter cancel fears. The fact of the matter is though that 95% of this board lives in areas that rarely see more then Fluries until January. I live the farthest north of most posters on the board and I have only seen more then Fluries or dustings before January one winter out of 11 that I’ve lived here. Obviously that was the 2010/2011 winter that gave me multiple 2-3 inch snowfalls by Christmas which probably won’t happen but once or twice more in my lifetime. I’ve seen what was supposed to be great winters end up bad and what was supposed to be bad winters end up great. My point is there’s no reason to worry until basically early January as that is when the south’s short snow season normally starts. Anything and everything before January is bonus snow down here.
 
olhausen said:
Yep this literally happens every year but seems to be happening earlier and earlier as far as winter cancel fears. The fact of the matter is though that 95% of this board lives in areas that rarely see more then Fluries until January. I live the farthest north of most posters on the board and I have only seen more then Fluries or dustings before January one winter out of 11 that I’ve lived here. Obviously that was the 2010/2011 winter that gave me multiple 2-3 inch snowfalls by Christmas which probably won’t happen but once or twice more in my lifetime. I’ve seen what was supposed to be great winters end up bad and what was supposed to be bad winters end up great. My point is there’s no reason to worry until basically early January as that is when the south’s short snow season normally starts. Anything and everything before January is bonus snow down here.
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Yep, all we have to do is look at winter 2015-16... December was literally as bad as it gets for winter lovers... the perfect storm, yet we ended up with a pretty good winter.
 
Really sucks that we are punting 15 more days at least before anything resembling fall. The 90s late week into the weekend will suck. Thankfully I'll be in vegas enjoying highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 30s

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SD said:
Really sucks that we are punting 15 more days at least before anything resembling fall. The 90s late week into the weekend will suck. Thankfully I'll be in vegas enjoying highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 30s

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What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas
 
I remember when it used to cool off by the second week September.


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Metcalf dorm at NCSU didn’t have AC in the 90s and those first couple weeks where rough. I bet they have AC now.


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Even after this “cool” front it still feels like August.


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BHS1975 said:
Metcalf dorm at NCSU didn’t have AC in the 90s and those first couple weeks where rough. I bet they have AC now.


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I was on the 12th floor in the early 90s. It sucked. And the multiple late night fire drills. Ug.
 
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