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Pattern Oct 10-13 Nor Easter or No Easter

NAM bringing 50mph winds inland (not gonna happen), HRRR with 40, still overdone I'm sure. But next couple days definitely look breezy with 30 mph gust maybe. @Shaggy you might get some gales down your way, enjoy
 
NAM bringing 50mph winds inland (not gonna happen), HRRR with 40, still overdone I'm sure. But next couple days definitely look breezy with 30 mph gust maybe. @Shaggy you might get some gales down your way, enjoy
Yeah those wind maps are always overdone. I do think the winds along the coast will be higher than what yhe globals had been showing. The hi res are really cranking this low up
 
This is really interesting. The low almost has some tropical characteristics to it tonight into tomorrow before it stacks and the mid levels cool. If we can avoid the secondary low taking over towards the mid Atlantic this should be a big rain event for central and Eastern carolinas.
 
Hate to get sucked in by the hi res wind profiles but it looks like 4pm through midnight is the best chance to see some wind for mby. Trying to decide if I want to go over to the east beaches or southern beaches this afternoon
 
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I mean it's still not strong but the winds have definitely stiffened up in the last 30 minutes or so probably into the 20s maybe Gustin 30 to 35 so there might be a little bit of something at the beach
 
This system is moving at a crawl. I've been waiting all afternoon for the precipitation to start at my house in Wake County and I am still waiting. Since this system seems to be in no hurry maybe rainfall amounts will be higher than projected. Any amount of rain would be welcome at this point considering the dry spell that most of North Carolina has been in.
 
Sorry folks had too travel too Durham this Morning/Afternoon, as I was exiting Raleigh, it started to sprinkle.. Got worse coming down I-40.. nasty..
Home here in Topsail Now, winds STEADY, NE @ 20 plenty rain, (Over a inch)..
 
LOCAL NWS write up..


Low pressure that will eventually blossom into becoming a nor`easter
is still slowly developing, now east of Savannah. Last night`s
guidance has shifted stronger and a tad closer to the coast. The
main ramifications to the forecast has been slightly higher winds
along the coast and higher QPF for inland locales. The upper trough
that is driving the system is still digging, and this appears to
giving guidance a hard time resolving whether the current incipient
low remains dominant or a secondary forms on the system`s warm
front. Locally this won`t matter too much, but the overall
progression looks a little slow even in solutions lacking a
secondary low.
 
LOCAL NWS write up..


Low pressure that will eventually blossom into becoming a nor`easter
is still slowly developing, now east of Savannah. Last night`s
guidance has shifted stronger and a tad closer to the coast. The
main ramifications to the forecast has been slightly higher winds
along the coast and higher QPF for inland locales. The upper trough
that is driving the system is still digging, and this appears to
giving guidance a hard time resolving whether the current incipient
low remains dominant or a secondary forms on the system`s warm
front. Locally this won`t matter too much, but the overall
progression looks a little slow even in solutions lacking a
secondary low.
So basically even as this system is starting to get going their are still question marks and the overall progression of the system is perhaps slower than originally thought. Sounds like a nowcast type forecast for who gets what

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