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Pattern Novemburrr

Rain Cold said:
You really need a connection between the ridge axis just off the coast and the block north of AK, for best results. Too much spacing between will get you a cool Canda and a glancing blow modified cool airmass across the US...or at worst, a warmer regime.

You often see the top of a big, tall ridge roll over and break off way up there and allow Pacific air into the US. Not ideal.
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Aka 2011-12 redux. #cinnamontoastisback.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Wasn’t he literally hyping a PV split and super cold East pattern, like 2 weeks ago?? When he can’t put a cold spin on things, 1st half of winter is toast! And toasty!
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Looks like we’re getting our cold now in November .. most of December probably relatively warm as we should all expect .. hope to see more disruptions sometime in December to help our best climo snow chances
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Looks like we’re getting our cold now in November .. most of December probably relatively warm as we should all expect .. hope to see more disruptions sometime in December to help our best climo snow chances
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Would much rather have a warmer November/colder December seems like we waste a decent pattern in fall nowadays, hard to get snow outside the mountains in November, and late jan/feb is when the SER becomes a legitimate long term risk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Would much rather have a warmer November/colder December seems like we waste a decent pattern in fall nowadays, hard to get snow outside the mountains in November, and late jan/feb is when the SER becomes a legitimate long term risk
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Eh we can’t win them all ..we take what we can get. Plus this pattern coming up looks fairly exciting the question is can we get enough cold air and there’s some impressive anomalies on the euro and even GEFS I wouldn’t get too worked up over it we can get plenty of cold air in late November
 
That's 2 7 day timeouts this morning.

Quick reminder we do have a whamby thread where it's very easy to quote post what you believe will be the next hot 1 liner. It's also very easy to post model runs in this monthly discussion thread and say something like x model run warmed/cooled/more snow/less snow than the last without "oof", "crickets", or whatever troll line you choose.
 
Finally had some time this weekend to knock another winter off my plate, 1956-57 which was a 3rd year -ENSO w/ a meager ~0.8" snow statewide avg (near record-low). The only accumulating snow that occurred east of the mountains was in the northern coastal plain & far northern piedmont near the VA border. The highlight of the winter was this modest ice storm in mid-January, in an otherwise crappy winter.

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