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Pattern Novemburrr

Although it was a roller coaster month and much cooler than October, November's still on track to be above average here in DFW.

In fact, highs for the next 2 days to end the month will be 10+ degrees above average.
 
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Low 40s already in the area with a shot at another freeze. This month will end up officially ~4 F BN at KSAV, making it a top 10-11 cold November going back 150 or so years! It is headed to a mean of ~55.0, the coldest since the 55.0 of 2012. Before 2012, one has to go all of the way back to 1976 for another at 55.0 or colder!

As I’ve hinted at, there’s some correlation between the coldest Novembers and BN winters here. So, whereas getting a cold November, itself, doesn’t at all mean a cold winter is likely (I’m not forecasting it), having it doesn’t reduce the chance of a BN winter and if anything increases the cold winter chance somewhat. More later if I get the chance.
 
GaWx said:
Low 40s already in the area with a shot at another freeze. This month will end up officially ~4 F BN at KSAV, making it a top 10-11 cold November going back 150 or so years! It is headed to a mean of ~55.0, the coldest since the 55.0 of 2012. Before 2012, one has to go all of the way back to 1976 for another at 55.0 or colder!

As I’ve hinted at, there’s some correlation between the coldest Novembers and BN winters here. So, whereas getting a cold November, itself, doesn’t at all mean a cold winter is likely (I’m not forecasting it), having it doesn’t reduce the chance of a BN winter and if anything increases the cold winter chance somewhat. More later if I get the chance.
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-4F is pretty impressive. Atlanta won’t be anywhere near that, probably -1 to -1.5F. Then probably starting off December +5-10.
 
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