Webberweather53
Meteorologist
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Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
It's too bad we don't have a correlation to winter temps for cold Novembers.
Stephenb888
Member
This forum is depressing toda
Actually, there’s a slight correlation of cold Novembers to cold winters in the SE…only slight meaning that doesn’t at all mean a cold winter is likely but the slight positive correlation is there if you were to look at many decades of history.
Gefs liking the idea of a anafront 
Spitballing here. Wasn’t 2017 a Niña that produced for us? I can remember a decent snow that winter. Mostly stuff coming down out of Canada. Just can’t remember what month.
When the lake Lanier warm nose is already showing up on 925’s you know it’s a wrap.
Eventually you will realize the reason people get depressed changes every 6 hours and you will learn to rarely be depressed.
2017 turned cold right at Christmas then we had that mega week of cold. Just missed the coastal in early Jan (parts of NC did well) then the big snow about 10 days later. Feb torched. Then it snowed like 4 times in March/April here
olhausen
Member
Me too! I look at the start of the winter the same as I look at a football or baseball season that’s just starting. There are lots of predictions but in the end there’s a reason they play the games and do not crown the preseason favorites before each season. It’s always exciting to see what kind of winter you’ll end up with at the end. The southeast is quite often a second half team so we should not write off the winter before December is even started.
It’s amazing to me how much the 12z GFS repeats the same pattern, over and over.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
WRAL is giving their winter forecast tomorrow night on the 6:00 news. I expect it to be as conservative as possible.
Eps raises heights along the west coast and in the pacific after about D7 again vs the 0z run which was an improvement over yesterday's runs
Isn't phase 7 the snowiest phase in December. Or does that not become significant until later in the month?
This week looks cold for most! Can we get a mustachioed emoji? Please
Indeed, all of the 12Z ensembles have the SE BN for the next 10-11 days. The 0Zs were similar. No mild anytime soon if models are right. And then by that time, you’re getting away from any kind of reliability from models.