Pattern Novemburrr

[tennessee storm]

even in bad pattern winters we will sneak some sort of Evolution out at someee point in the winter to give us a shot. We can’t be throwing the towel in before we even get into December lol is all I’m saying

Don’t recall anything sneaking in on me. And I’m in Tennessee… that winter 11. 12.. hope I am wrong yeah don’t throw towel in this early I am not, but what I am seeing we will be fighting a loosing battle prettt much things don’t get fixed in the pacific . Never seen it this bad thus far

 

[SD]

Don’t recall anything sneaking in on me. And I’m in Tennessee… that winter 11. 12.. hope I am wrong yeah don’t throw towel in this early I am not, but what I am seeing we will be fighting a loosing battle prettt much things don’t get fixed in the pacific . Never seen it this bad thus far

601

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Don’t recall anything sneaking in on me. And I’m in Tennessee… that winter 11. 12.. hope I am wrong yeah don’t throw towel in this early I am not, but what I am seeing we will be fighting a loosing battle prettt much things don’t get fixed in the pacific . Never seen it this bad thus far

Yeah I’m talking about real ones in CAD NC ain’t ever gone 1 winter without any type of winter precip

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah I’m talking about real ones in CAD NC ain’t ever gone 1 winter without any type of winter precip

That’s not really true, I’ve come across at least a few winters where CAD regions NW of Charlotte were blanked.

 

[Somosdel]

As we know in NC all it takes is one storm and winter is a success. Even with a mild winter we can sneak out a good one. No reason to get down this early.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Hey at least we get some water soon

 

[Webberweather53]

If you look at all La Ninas since 1895 that were above normal in Dec at RDU, the median snow of those 22 winters is ~3.7", or ~25% below normal and ~2/3rds of those winters had below average snowfall. Not the end of the world, and you could cherry-pick a few occasional blockbusters (1999-00) as a counterpoint, but the overall signal certainly puts us at a decided disadvantage when December is warm in a la nina. Same can not be said for El Nino winters tho.

So, we're basically giving ourselves a 33% chance (historically) to end up 'cashing in' this winter, you can basically assume that's the upper bound on the chances here because the long-term trend is towards warmer/less snowy winters w/ time.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You know it’s bad when even the daily CFS shows what the major ensembles are showing and not some crazy blockbuster snow pattern

 

[Webberweather53]

You know it’s bad when even the daily CFS shows what the major ensembles are showing and not some crazy blockbuster snow pattern View attachment 95467View attachment 95468View attachment 95470View attachment 95469View attachment 95471

On the bright side, it’s a good pattern for me if we can briefly shift and amp the wavelengths. Negative NAO/AO/EPO often leave me warmer than normal

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol when you look at it there’s literally nothing going good for the eastern US in early December for cold, the MJO, SPV, the evolution in AK, the disappearing blocking, I mean the only way I could think we improve it is get some random -NAO to try and come back from some super random wavebreaking. let’s just enjoy this while it’s here

 

[GaWx]

Imagine waking up to read the last 40 or so new posts and just about none of them have anything to do with the thread topic of November, which is going to end up nice and cold…actually the coldest month in years anomalywise for a good bit of the SE. A fantastic month!

 

[GaWx]

This could be another one of those winters where KATL doesn’t get its first official freeze until mid December.

KATL will very likely will have its first freeze on November 23rd. Even way down here we may have our first freeze by November 24th.

 

[Tarheel1]

You've told us about 600 times we know

Has that severe look to it! ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Imagine waking up to read the last 40 or so new posts and just about none of them have anything to do with the thread topic of November, which is going to end up nice and cold…actually the coldest month in years anomalywise for a good bit of the SE. A fantastic month!

They just have to be negative when it’s so cold out lol nothing we can do but the December talk should stay in the December thread

 

[Webberweather53]

Me trying to find this December thread




The same people complaining about this discussion not being in the non-existent December thread wouldn't say a peep if December looked cold & we piled it on in this thread. Weenies modernweenie

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

That’s not really true, I’ve come across at least a few winters where CAD regions NW of Charlotte were blanked.

Have not been blanked in my 56 years of living here..... What years are you referring to?

 

[Faco Thomas]

Looks like we’re headed for another warm winter

At this point in the game, I accept that things don't work like they used to. Even ENSO seems not to matter much anymore neither. The last three El Nino's have been quite warm in the SE. Until waters near Australia cool down,this is basically what we should expect every Winter for the SE going forward.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well there’s this, ICON has 925s below freezing under the trough axis meaning highs would probably barely make it in the mid 40s

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I like

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Icon really starting to try as well with this late November system! This is darn close you can’t say other wise. Not there yet but this is workable