?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Liking the less concentric look as you head lower in the atmosphere. ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like we’re headed for another warm winter
Well can't say I'm surprised and no point in complaining since it looks just like what it should given all we have going against us this winter. Just hope it flips like we know it would if it showed a great pattern that far out.
That’s a great look !
?
We should have been using the analog method to forecast winters for years now instead of just blindly guessing, since it's so accurate!
Oooooof
Grit did pretty good last year with the -NAO analogs and even pacific
Grit is good. But he's been wrong plenty, just like everyone else. I enjoy reading all the winter forecasts and the good reasoning behind them. But at the end of the day, long range forecasting is little more than a coun flip.
That said, there is no reason to expect a cold winter. If you just take persistence alone, you will come up with a map that has yellows and oranges over the east. One day that will change. Nobody knows when, though. Even so, we can still have several bouts of winter weather.
That’s eventually gonna couple and probably why were seeing the very warm look to start out December, that’s some unusual warmth showing up at least at 850mb for much of NA, o mean for example look at this week, there’s a stretched PV towards NA, and look, we have some of the coldest anomalies on our side (NA)
but now we get the PV away back towards the other side and we’re getting these NA/US wall to wall warmth looks again, eventually a PV away from us would reflect, and this was the same exact reason why october had record breaking warmth across NA, the SPV was on the other side of the world
trust me I want it to snow again, im seriously not even rooting for warmth at this point
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The winters in each of those composites are all over the place for snow, the warmer +EPO group has complete trash in 2011-12 & 2005-06 but 1999-00 & 1988-89 that found a way to go off for a few weeks that year, but were otherwise torches. The other side is 1985-86 & 2000-01 (meh), & 2017-18 (great), 1995-96 (the only decent winter of the entire 1990s)
Bro this is early December ?? we will be alright
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This year reminds me a little of 2011-12 honestly. Cold got dumped into Alaska in December and never left the rest of the winter
The evolution that’s showing up is one that’s gonna be hard to break out of and is gonna take time, it’s just something that’ll hopefully change in models but La Niñas are typically better for the eastern US to start winter into mid winter, then the SE ridge becomes a issue the second half, it would suck wasting the first half away that favors better stuff in a La Niña for the east/southeast
tennessee storm
Member
That analog is honestly being touted as number one going into this winter . Why I can’t get to excited . It’s starting out just like that 11 12 winter
even in bad pattern winters we will sneak some sort of Evolution out at someee point in the winter to give us a shot. We can’t be throwing the towel in before we even get into December lol is all I’m saying
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
People were cheering on the MJO several days ago because it looked like we were entering the cold phases. Going to run through 4-7 into early December, couldn’t get any warmer than this. No real signal for cold until/if we ever reach 8 (maybe** mid December?) Phase 7’s anomalies aren’t statistically significant except over the northern Plains
You've told us about 600 times we know
Mega March will provide I just feel it
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes December is prime real estate for La Niña winters, wasting that away would really suck. Hopefully we give ourselves an opportunity mid to late month, if we can push the MJO into the W hem, we’ll have a shot. February is almost always above average or a torch in these kinds of winters, so the clock is already ticking. Certainly plenty reason to be discouraged rn