Dewpoint Dan
Member
No need to be snarky. The poor dude has lived in AL and TX his whole life. Let him enjoy his first winter in the great white north.
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Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
BRO I’ve been thinking we need this thing in NAM range … first NAMing??
Hmmm ? 
Good look for our friends in Eastern TN and NW GA.
Move that low about 75-100 miles east and put a big blue H over Pennsylvania and maybe we’re in business
Odd evolution of the rain stalling west of the mtns, any increase in timing, or upslope, could easily generate some wintry mix to cold rain for a good deal of people after seeing low temps in the 20s prior…would like some sleet.
CMC much colder with temps in the teens east of the mtns. More than enough cold dry air getting trapped at the surface IF precip makes it to the surface it’s gonna be a MIX of rain/sleet. I assume modeled evolution of rain is shunted west with all this cold dry air getting locked into areas east of the mtns.
NoSnowATL
Member
All I see is 32-35 rain.
It will scorch above ⬆ on the models but even Alabama-Mississippi-Tennessee-Georgia areas look somewhat prime of onset mix before rain due to prior cold mornings.
This doesn’t really scream onset Wilkes, can ofc change tho
9 times out of 10 global models can’t see ground truth conditions near the surface after a cold blast. A lot will weigh on how cold we actually get. If the CMC is right, it’s almost a given >95% of onset sleet to just all rain. It’s hard to go from teens to rain with skipping the onset sleet but it is possible.
CMC too cold but CAD regions can’t recover quick enough even if the GFS is right. Quick ? to ? 
Low placement is good though.
NoSnowATL
Member
Building up our source region ??
Brent
Member
Hmmm a stay tuned for Thanksgiving from the same TV met yesterday who said no snow. modernweenie
Of course the GFS didn't have anything ?
Of course the GFS didn't have anything ?
Wtf 
It’s just to early and lacking much of a cold source for this nice look at H5.
GFS came back with the super cold day next Tuesday. Lots of low 40s and breezy too