Gfs 00z highs and lows after Arctic blast 
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Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Yeah way too much ice close by
Wait so the GEFS now goes out 840 hours??? 
It has for about a year. It only does it at 00z, and updates for the previous day. I look at it on Weatherbell’s site, and it really isn’t worth looking at beyond kicks and giggles.
Euro ?
Brent
Member
That's gonna be a cold Thanksgiving here if theres frozen precip in Texas ?
The soundings on that are really close
Gotta love that gefs trend to a beautiful H5 pattern on the Atlantic side/eastern US
Wow the Atlantic side is great, look how the block moves into Baffin Bay location, perfect. Too bad Pacific side does not cooperate, yet again.
Stephenb888
Member
Does everything have to be perfect to get a winter storm around here? Geeze.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes it does
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s a great looking pattern for the mid Atlantic and New England and perhaps the mountains. I wouldn’t get too excited outside of those areas without North Pacific blocking delivering additional cold air, esp at this time of the year when climo is warmer/favors cold rain.
Do you have a map reference to "North Pacific Blocking"? I'm not sure exactly what you are referring to.
from the CPC site yesterday:
PNA - Looks to go positive in the LR
AO - Looks to go strongly negative
NAO - Looks to go strongly negative.
CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
This would take us out to the end of November / start of December; which the pattern/climatology at that point can produce major winter storms. So basically it's about go time for us to start hoping for winter miracles.
PNA - Looks to go positive in the LR
AO - Looks to go strongly negative
NAO - Looks to go strongly negative.
CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
This would take us out to the end of November / start of December; which the pattern/climatology at that point can produce major winter storms. So basically it's about go time for us to start hoping for winter miracles.
smast16
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm mainly referring to the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO), which is a large-scale teleconnection that regulates the flow of mild N Pacific & cold Siberian air into the N American continent. During the negative phase, you end up seeing a blocking ridge go up in Alaska (warm colors) & cold air move from Siberia, which is the coldest place in the entire N hemisphere during winter & across the N pole, and into N America, where it can fuel southern snowstorms. The only downside is it often comes w/ a SE US ridge, which may keep the cold air further to our NW. The negative phase looks like this:
Ideally, you really wanna see this pattern, where -NAO (Greenland ridge) couples to a -EPO. The -EPO delivers the cold air into the pattern, while the -NAO suppresses the storm track/SE ridge, allowing it to actually reach us & encouraging storminess along the US east coast. It's hard to get both of these simultaneously because the circulation regime that creates -EPO often destroys -NAO (through downward planetary wave reflection in the stratosphere) & vis versa.
More astute bloggers on here will also notice in this map below that a -EPO/-NAO combo like this also favors -PNA (or western US trough). Imo, this isn't necessarily a bad thing, it just changes the character/kind of winter storms you tend to see. -PNA/-EPO/-NAO is more conducive to Miller B/Cold Air damming (CAD)/overrunning (i.e. ice storms), whereas +PNA/-EPO/-NAO is more conducive to strong coastal cyclones (Miller A) (i.e. storms w/ sharp rain/snow lines)
Would love to see that low anomaly over AK retrograde SW a bit. Love seeing evidence of an active southern stream. And what a block! Hard to draw it up any better.
If we can somehow muster a taller western ridge, we'd seriously have a legit shot at a winter storm. Without that, like Weber said, we'll likely have some anomalously cold air, but given where we are seasonally, winter weather outside the mountains will be difficult to achieve. Still, the pattern is nice to see, should it develop as advertised.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely going to be a bit tenuous to forecast the PNA, if one of these waves decides to amp/shorten the wavelengths temporarily, (which seems like a good possibility given how slow the westerlies are near the east coast), then it throws a wrench into the forecast. If we can hold this look in general w/ the trough axis centered from the Lakes through the E TN Valley/Apps, the door opens more for a coastal cyclone/Miller A look. If however, the trough base were to extend back into the southern Great Plains and south-central Rockies, then our chances for seeing an ice storm/CAD would go up, barring that we'd actually have the cold air to begin w/.
