CNCsnwfan1210
Member
30 here in SW Wilson county…decent amount of frost.
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November 2025
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
30 here in SW Wilson county…decent amount of frost.
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36 with roof frost
Noles1812
Member
Its been really dry down here this year. I hope the fall and winter months bring the rain.
Bottomed out at 31.1, first subfreezing temp of the season.
week looks fairly boring outside of sneaky wudge potential for north of I-40 a few days. Monday has trended cooler for most up here
NCSNOW
Member
Gotta water my green Giants on a mid november day, they hurting.
JHS
Member
No real rain in sight either. The storm after Thanksgiving is drying up fast east and south of the mountains.
It’s “anomalously” windy out. Frontal passage and all I guess
how's that workin out for ya bud
will enjoy tomorrow. a couple chances at light showers seem to be the highlight of the week around here
Had a gust to 35 so far
Need cold front 80s soon
right where we want it 
In first: weather mod
Brent
Member
Well we're heading the right direction 
A euro wudge-giving for your monday morning
ec-ai ens doesn't entirely discount the idea, with a handful of members biting, and you can see the wedge footprint on wednesday
the real fun comes after that, with the ec-ai ens being much more excited about big front potential late next week vs the eps
the solutions diverge the most after early week, when the ec-ai ens develops enough western ridging to dump cold more eastward, with the eps just drops troughing right down on the west coast. considering we are, in theory, moving into mjo p7 within the next 10ish days, we'll hopefully start to favor taller wrn ridging. hopefully that can come to fruition and give us a break from the goose cooking of the next 8-12 days (wedge pending)
ec-ai ens doesn't entirely discount the idea, with a handful of members biting, and you can see the wedge footprint on wednesday
the real fun comes after that, with the ec-ai ens being much more excited about big front potential late next week vs the eps
the solutions diverge the most after early week, when the ec-ai ens develops enough western ridging to dump cold more eastward, with the eps just drops troughing right down on the west coast. considering we are, in theory, moving into mjo p7 within the next 10ish days, we'll hopefully start to favor taller wrn ridging. hopefully that can come to fruition and give us a break from the goose cooking of the next 8-12 days (wedge pending)
In the short(er) range, I'm focused on Thanksgiving. Nobody (me) wants a warm Thanksgiving. Here's the surface temps on the 0z Euro for midday Thanksgiving:
I have a feeling with the -NAO we might start seeing wedge events that kinda mute this milder period east of the mountains… especially with daytime highs
interesting to me that hardly any eps members show wedging. the h5 look isn't terribly far off from various composites in CAD research papers (its not great either, but you can't expect it to be given there's not much on the individual members lol). eps has thoughts of sfc HP over the east coast as well. probably making something of nothing and it'll disappear at 12z, but what else do we have to talk about
Beaut
lexxnchloe
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Nice little trough drop on the AI GEFS around Thanksgiving.
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NCSNOW
Member
Seeing some shuffling on latest Euro OP as we digest the Turkey and close out November. Actually gets some frozen into upper SE/Mtns .
See if this continues to get advertised or winds up being a false flag.
See if this continues to get advertised or winds up being a false flag.
Cool features from last night a buddy pointed out, you can see on IR the warmer spots due to air spilling across the western Carolinas between the gaps in the Appalachians. Around here, we only got to 50 this morning because winds stayed up while two counties over got to 32 with no wind
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Ai euro trying to drop snowstorms
Uh oh
I just love having all these AI models now. It's like multiple reincarnations of the DGEX. We have had a big hole in our hearts since that was retired.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Yuck. I don’t want 70s on Thanksgiving.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I am lol.
Brent
Member
Haha
Oh and Thanksgiving has trended warmer since yesterday
Oh and Thanksgiving has trended warmer since yesterday
I 
AI models!
AI models!
wrapped up my forecast for the week this morning and boy howdy, i am not breaking any news here but it is a booooring yet somehow pesky stretch around here. lots of clouds and scattered shwr chances. also, nice inversion up in wnc with waynesville at 29F and nearby 5000' fryingpan mountain at 49F.
beyond that, my birthday wudge dreams are clinging to a shred of ai generated hope
a little bit of support on this morning's op euro as well. i just don't want 70s for my birthday lol
and if its a cold thanksgiving you're hoping for, well, the further west the better. but either way, disagreement remains on our potential big ol front late next week. the robot bunch continues to be more bullish on earlier arrival and a more exciting thanksgiving with fropa occurring during the day for many. a bit of a scattered signal for a rainy turkey day for some in the mid/deep south as well
AIFS was going for the arctic hammer for western areas to start Dec as well. we gotta pin down this first potential cold shot first. 6z black friday on the ai-ens vs the eps vs the gefs. ai continues to have a more stout western ridge (something we've talked about a few times so far this fall) vs the eps which drops another trough in the west (you can see it starting to break down the wrn ridge in this frame), muting the potential for us out east. I will be cautiously optimistic for now
lots of pictures in my posts nowadays
beyond that, my birthday wudge dreams are clinging to a shred of ai generated hope
a little bit of support on this morning's op euro as well. i just don't want 70s for my birthday lol
and if its a cold thanksgiving you're hoping for, well, the further west the better. but either way, disagreement remains on our potential big ol front late next week. the robot bunch continues to be more bullish on earlier arrival and a more exciting thanksgiving with fropa occurring during the day for many. a bit of a scattered signal for a rainy turkey day for some in the mid/deep south as well
AIFS was going for the arctic hammer for western areas to start Dec as well. we gotta pin down this first potential cold shot first. 6z black friday on the ai-ens vs the eps vs the gefs. ai continues to have a more stout western ridge (something we've talked about a few times so far this fall) vs the eps which drops another trough in the west (you can see it starting to break down the wrn ridge in this frame), muting the potential for us out east. I will be cautiously optimistic for now
lots of pictures in my posts nowadays
Brent
Member
It's 67 degrees at 8am 9 days before Thanksgiving 
This is crazy. Our average high is 61!
It does seem like we're slowly heading there by the weekend. Maybe
Thanksgiving is also the coldest day showing up but it looks short lived again
This is crazy. Our average high is 61!
It does seem like we're slowly heading there by the weekend. Maybe
Thanksgiving is also the coldest day showing up but it looks short lived again
its funny to me how the models continue to really be too ridged east too troughed west in the mid range. I think we might actually be able to get a front through Wednesday night into early Thanksgiving so it's at least not 80 for most of us
snowc
Member
Just think, 180 days till summer starts to crank up.It's 67 degrees at 8am 9 days before Thanksgiving
This is crazy. Our average high is 61!
It does seem like we're slowly heading there by the weekend. Maybe
Thanksgiving is also the coldest day showing up but it looks short lived again
This makes sense with P7. It's cool to see the models adjust as the mjo flows around the horn. They'll all catch on to a cold east pretty soon.