Oconeexman
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Thats wild it was 24 when i left for work at 0430 this morning and im sure it dropped a couple by daybreak
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November 2025
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
I can confirm that as of 2:15a, my area of Durham had received nary a flake. I stayed up that late (like a fool) because I saw all the areas right around me were reporting flakes and figured “surely, any minute now….”I didn’t end up staying up for it, but it sounds like RDU got a trace overnight, so maybe we did here, too.
There’s pretty much always going to be one or more spots that seem to have a snow force field around them whilst other spots nearby are receiving it. Seems Durham might’ve been that last night!
Amazing to see November 1954 on that list with how hot it was that fall
Got down to a low of 27 down here, for the first freeze of the season! The warming trend starts today however, so no more freezes for the next week at least.
So which model performed the best with the 500mb vort max dropping down for our Upper South / S Apps / Carolina snow event and cold when going back 5 days?
GFS was the worst. Euro was the best.
1. Euro
2. CMC
3. Euro AI - this surprised me as I like this model when watching it for outdoor activities etc.
4. GFS - this didn't surprise me
Euro:
postimg.cc
CMC:
postimg.cc
Euro AI:
postimg.cc
GFS:
postimg.cc
GFS was the worst. Euro was the best.
1. Euro
2. CMC
3. Euro AI - this surprised me as I like this model when watching it for outdoor activities etc.
4. GFS - this didn't surprise me
Euro:
Nov 10 Storm Euro — Postimages
CMC:
Nov 10 Storm CMC — Postimages
Euro AI:
Nov 10 Storm Euro AI — Postimages
GFS:
Nov 10 Storm GFS — Postimages
Any other thoughts on model performance?
For snowfall east of the Apps, in the short range, I thought it ended up being bits and pieces from multiple models. Each model would hit in one location, but not in others
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Euro had the backside vort way back into last weekSo which model performed the best with the 500mb vort max dropping down for our Upper South / S Apps / Carolina snow event and cold when going back 5 days?
GFS was the worst. Euro was the best.
1. Euro
2. CMC
3. Euro AI - this surprised me as I like this model when watching it for outdoor activities etc.
4. GFS - this didn't surprise me
Euro:
Nov 10 Storm Euro — Postimages
CMC:
Nov 10 Storm CMC — Postimages
Euro AI:
Nov 10 Storm Euro AI — Postimages
GFS:
Nov 10 Storm GFS — Postimages
I was just near there on Sunday driving back from Norfolk (and visiting the Great Dismal Swamp)! Damn, I should’ve stuck around! Moyock is the snow capital of NC outside the mountains, supplanting Roxboro!i hope the dude in moyock thoroughly enjoyed his half an inchView attachment 176457
MBY actually lost power this morning, I guess from a tree falling from the wind gusts.
NCSNOW
Member
Awesome. 8 yr old kid living in the mtns
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh look, another western trough biting the dust once it gets into the medium range. How original
Tsappfrog20
Member
Yep, pretty wild how accurate it was 130hrs out.
Attachments
Shaggy
Member
Definitely underachieving on highs so far. Original was for a high of 54 then they dropped it to 49 and we've struggled to get to 45
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The western trough doesn't want to be here in fall and early winter this year. The first chance it gets to eject eastward in a few weeks, it'll take it. It's a theme we've seen play out time and time again this fall.
Related to the post I made this morning:
Regarding strictly the low temps for this morning going back to late last week’s runs, the ICON and CMC both stood out as doing the best by several degrees because they were on average the coldest models. The UKMET did the worst overall because it was the warmest on average and cold won out this time.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
All caveats necessary; but GFS giving a cold look for Thanksgiving; which I personally always like to get.
The real question is will we look back on this as a precursor for what was a great winter. Or one of those events that just made you hopeful but ended up being 
I kinda like my thanksgiving warm. Throw around some football and what not. Plus it always seems to be warm. After that full speed ahead on the cold though.