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November 2025

Mitch West said:
I don't understand why anyone would not want a cold & wintry December. I mean unless you just don't give a darn about snow around Christmas. Personally, if I had to pick a month to have a Winter storm & I had to pick between December, January & February it would be December every time. I would sacrifice the rest of Winter to just get a snowstorm in the days/weeks leading up to Christmas. You give me Winter storm rolling in the afternoon of the last day of school for the kids before Christmas break, that is peak life right there.
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A repeat of December 1989 about 100 miles to the northwest would be perfect for you. Move it back another 50 miles and both of us would love it.
 
Ahhh, Shades of Dec 1989 incoming into the Chat..
My Daughter was conceived then, (ON XMAS), What else too do,,, ( w/0 (zero temps), Hot Toddies & a couple Doobies & no-where too go?) Here in Wilmington..
#1 Christmas too Date in My life, Wishing for ONE MORE.
 
Mitch West said:
I don't understand why anyone would not want a cold & wintry December. I mean unless you just don't give a darn about snow around Christmas. Personally, if I had to pick a month to have a Winter storm & I had to pick between December, January & February it would be December every time. I would sacrifice the rest of Winter to just get a snowstorm in the days/weeks leading up to Christmas. You give me Winter storm rolling in the afternoon of the last day of school for the kids before Christmas break, that is peak life right there.
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I'm with you Mitch. I mean all our lives we see Norman Rockwell paintings, movies, some Christmas songs associated with snow at Christmas. Just makes it even more exciting to me.
 
Tarheel1 said:
It doesn’t matter how you load! Front or back, when you see flakes fly in the South, it’s magical
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I agree to disagree based on averages! I love cold around Christmas as much as the next guy/gal but I would happily give it up for measurable snow in Jan/Feb like the norm.
 
Rain Cold said:
I will take cold and snow whenever the atmosphere wants to give it.

If I'm picking, then im picking big snow at Christmas.

Actually, if I'm picking, I'm picking big snow all winter.
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I would go as far as to say that if it snowed a “big” snow at Christmas I would be fine with blowtorch Jan and Feb.
 
jeremyt said:
I agree to disagree based on averages! I love cold around Christmas as much as the next guy/gal but I would happily give it up for measurable snow in Jan/Feb like the norm.
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The thing is though with the background state of a weak LaNina were more likely to see good events in December and the first couple weeks of January. As Webb pointed out, there some strong indications that the second half of winter is a torch
 
Chazwin said:
The thing is though with the background state of a weak LaNina were more likely to see good events in December and the first couple weeks of January. As Webb pointed out, there some strong indications that the second half of winter is a torch
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Front loaded winter if that occurred, which would be good if it happens like that
 
MRKEVIN7575 said:
Front loaded winter if that occurred, which would be good if it happens like that
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Only scary part is if nothing lines up in Dec/Early Jan then you’re just sol waiting for next year. Sometimes I like the hope of what could be in Jan/Feb. I never want to hear they are going to be 💩.
 
Stevo24 said:
Only scary part is if nothing lines up in Dec/Early Jan then you’re just sol waiting for next year. Sometimes I like the hope of what could be in Jan/Feb. I never want to hear they are going to be 💩.
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Every winter is different, regardless of many analogs people use and all the comparisons people try to do. That's the reality
 
I just think we have to take the cold if and whenever we can get it. Last year we got what we wanted with a bona fide cold Jan and most of us didn't get much out of it snow wise. Still nice to have to cold though. The year before, the best set up we had was in Dec but the snow was west of the Apps. Can't remember the last time Feb was cold.

Things don't work like they used to for many areas south of I40 and below 2500 feet, or even East of the Apps. We better just take it anytime it's there and be glad we have a chance to wear a coat.
 
Ukmet, Canadian and Icon all dig deep like the Euro Op. Ukmet is almost carbon copy. GFS is hanging out in left field but slowly creeping up to the table. Interested to see how far it folds into consensus the next couple days. GFS usually doesn't have a clue outside 5 days and can only be trusted inside 5 days , if it has consensus from other models/ops. Technology, AI constantly improving, but American Physics models seem to get worse/less dependable over the years. never improve. Maybe it's just me.
 
And this is with it favored east of here 🤣


A reinforcing push of even colder air arrives late Sunday. There
is some ensemble uncertainty with how direct of a hit we will
have, but most guidance agrees generally that this front will
bring cold and very dry air down from Canada. Model guidance shows
925 hPa temps of -7 to -8C, quite unusual for this time of year.
 
MRKEVIN7575 said:
Every winter is different, regardless of many analogs people use and all the comparisons people try to do. That's the reality
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100%. as I've always said, I appreciate the effort for those who try to find analogs and work hard to try and figure it out but you are dealing with an unstable and chaotic system that only has very loose similarities to years past. Pretty much anything can happen regardless of indexes and analogs. I never take season forecasting very seriously as it's at best only slightly better than a coin flip in terms of if we get snow, ice, etc. As you can have just the right set of circumstances in a warm winter to get something or you can freeze your tail off for weeks and not get squat.
 
Makeitsnow said:
100%. as I've always said, I appreciate the effort for those who try to find analogs and work hard to try and figure it out but you are dealing with an unstable and chaotic system that only has very loose similarities to years past. Pretty much anything can happen regardless of indexes and analogs. I never take season forecasting very seriously as it's at best only slightly better than a coin flip in terms of if we get snow, ice, etc. As you can have just the right set of circumstances in a warm winter to get something or you can freeze your tail off for weeks and not get squat.
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Yup I keep trying to tell people that nobody knows what will happen. All the analogs patterns in the world doesn't guarantee anything... People are mad it's still been pretty warm here but like it doesn't matter. Honestly I'd rather not waste the cold too early anyway. The year we had the biggest snowstorm in November here it didn't snow for real again the entire winter. No thanks

Or they act like it's supposed to be cold all winter which never happens here

But seriously we had a day in the 60s in August. What analog predicted that?

Last winter every setup here went the opposite way of the way it looked a day before like sometimes we don't even know til it's already snowing or not 🤣

Don't even get me started on the snow holes the 2 winters before. It was almost as guaranteed as it gets here and yet we were 1 degree too warm both times. You just never know
 
definitely starting to build confidence in the first traditional NW flow snow of the season for WNC. EPS has been bouncing around some on QPF but with a trough such as the one being modeled i would trust the mountains to do their job. keep watching and maybe some snow maps are getting put out by fri/sat!

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Howdy y'all! I just moved down to Tallahassee for a job and I'm excited to be joining the community here in the southeast. Some of you might recognize me from other forums around, but if not I'm originally from Pennsylvania, moved out to Wyoming for grad school, and now live in Florida. I'm a northerner so you can bet I'm excited for the cold blast next week.

I'm interested to see which locations approach or break record lows. Asheville will be interesting, the record for 11/10 is 18° and the GFS/Euro show lower 20s for lows. Charlotte remains above any records progged on guidance
 
Newman said:
Howdy y'all! I just moved down to Tallahassee for a job and I'm excited to be joining the community here in the southeast. Some of you might recognize me from other forums around, but if not I'm originally from Pennsylvania, moved out to Wyoming for grad school, and now live in Florida. I'm a northerner so you can bet I'm excited for the cold blast next week.

I'm interested to see which locations approach or break record lows. Asheville will be interesting, the record for 11/10 is 18° and the GFS/Euro show lower 20s for lows. Charlotte remains above any records progged on guidance
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Welcome
Aboard …
 
Chazwin said:
The thing is though with the background state of a weak LaNina were more likely to see good events in December and the first couple weeks of January. As Webb pointed out, there some strong indications that the second half of winter is a torch
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I totally understand the thoughts, I guess, to me, it’s the past few years where we have had well below normal periods early Nov-Dec. Was in 22-23 or 23-24 that the temps around Christmas were in the teens here? That said, I think we have averaged less than 1/4” annually if you combine the years. The only decent December snows that I recall were 88 or 89 ( memories fade) and 2010. 2018 was North of me and to be honest it sucks to see cold chasing moisture. I guess we’ll see how it plays out and I’ll stop being what as perceived as negative. Just hard to buy a front loaded winter with any expectation!
 
Newman said:
Howdy y'all! I just moved down to Tallahassee for a job and I'm excited to be joining the community here in the southeast. Some of you might recognize me from other forums around, but if not I'm originally from Pennsylvania, moved out to Wyoming for grad school, and now live in Florida. I'm a northerner so you can bet I'm excited for the cold blast next week.

I'm interested to see which locations approach or break record lows. Asheville will be interesting, the record for 11/10 is 18° and the GFS/Euro show lower 20s for lows. Charlotte remains above any records progged on guidance
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IMG_8293.gif
 
jeremyt said:
I totally understand the thoughts, I guess, to me, it’s the past few years where we have had well below normal periods early Nov-Dec. Was in 22-23 or 23-24 that the temps around Christmas were in the teens here? That said, I think we have averaged less than 1/4” annually if you combine the years. The only decent December snows that I recall were 88 or 89 ( memories fade) and 2010. 2018 was North of me and to be honest it sucks to see cold chasing moisture. I guess we’ll see how it plays out and I’ll stop being what as perceived as negative. Just hard to buy a front loaded winter with any expectation!
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I get it. January/February average temp is colder than December thus we average more snow in January and February imby. The likelihood of getting snow, even with below normal temps in Dec is therefore less than in jan and feb.

I would rather it be in January to increase my chances for winter weather, but with the last decade being so warm all months I’ll take whatever I can get. Hopefully it can get super cold in Dec and we can have some fun.

November troughs I have zero expectations and just enjoy strange cool weather.
 
Mitch West said:
A real swell model.
View attachment 176044
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Pretends to be shocked....

People claim that it fixed the progressive issues it has but I still keep seeing it all the time. I make forecasts for my internship with AEM-Earth Networks and for the WxChallenge and have been ignoring the GFS for the last 6 months or so. It has been straight up awful....
 
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