STJ, jet extensions, oof, womp, golf emoji, the pattern will remember, smoked turkey.
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Pattern Ninovember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Super Ninovember 
Oh to get this pattern just a few months later…
The latest GFS finally gets some rain in here on two seperate occasions first week of November. To the tune of 3-4 inches statewide.
However the 0z Euro Op still has us in a the Nada Doghnut hole out through Nov 7th. Ugh!!!!
However the 0z Euro Op still has us in a the Nada Doghnut hole out through Nov 7th. Ugh!!!!
I was surprised to see this today, felt like we were heading in a positive direction with the 12z runs yesterday toward getting more substantial rain chances. It seems like it's only a matter of time with the pac jet getting more consolidated and extended as we get toward Halloween.
lexxnchloe
Member
Brent
Member
No surprise here. I'll believe we're below normal when I see it
Just like the Thanksgiving "snow" I saw last night. Everyone always jinxes it here anyway(hence my sarcasm about it being 80 instead)
It's gonna be a long winter like I said before
Agreed, no surprise at all. Early winter should be mild as all indications have been suggesting, including super Nino/+QBO analogs, despite the weaker than avg SPV in the 1st 1/2 of Nov. Our greatest hope remains Feb.
Jim going for big totals for a large section of the SE!
Salt saves lives, folks!
Salt saves lives, folks!
tennessee storm
Member
100 percent AGREE
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Well then I have NO hope. Feb is failure.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Exactly. If our best hope is Feb then we’re screwed.
NoSnowATL
Member
It’s October not January. We good
The annual snowfall means in the SE are about the same in Feb as Dec. In fact, snow means after Jan tend to be more than before Jan. (little bit of March skew there compared to Nov)
Obviously we want January if we get to pick and choose, but we don’t get to.
I think some are overweighting how “bad” Feb traditionally is, but that’s just my opinion. The optimum winter window in this region has always been late Dec to mid Feb.
Obviously we want January if we get to pick and choose, but we don’t get to.
I think some are overweighting how “bad” Feb traditionally is, but that’s just my opinion. The optimum winter window in this region has always been late Dec to mid Feb.
NBAcentel
Member
let’s also not act like we had a major snowstorm a day before February first of last year. Still had a foot of snow on the ground some point last February. That counts to me
This guy is turrible! Like Kittybump bad!
He likes to forecast in chunks! And make predictions a week out, then have to walk it back each day to explain his mistakes and he’s in Iowa! I can do this too: snow looking increasingly likely in Iowa between Nov 1st and Jan 30! I’m watching it closely! “
Should this verify it would be the third time this year we've gone at least 30 days without measurable rain in areas of the coastal plains in SC/NC. Beyond absurd.
shortstopsergio
Member
Bone dry too here… I feel you
Carolina Fever
Member
All the precip is waiting to come in winter when it's cold enough for snow.
Funny enough a ton of tobacco had to be planted twice this year because it was so dry the first plantings straight up died from no rain. Now wheat is getting into the ground with close to zero soil moisture because of the warm temperatures, sunny days, and wind.
Looks like fall is about to be gone for a while. Barftastic.
Ooof
️ womp
The one nice thing about being in the last of October is the surface temps can still be pleasant while being above normal. Just looking at the 6z GFS (...lazy) looks like the pattern you (EPS) shown above will continue into the first of November. So, no Halloween storm?
Brent
Member
We're really gonna have the warmest year ever here huh somebody told me the other week nobody will be prepared for the anomalies this year and this month is again way above normal
Can't wait for all the posts /s
I mean don't get me wrong it's way better than the summer which lasted until 3 weeks ago but it's still crazy how much above normal we've been consistently. Average high is already in the low 70s and will be in the 60s by next weekend. I don't think we've had a high below 60 yet which is nearly unheard of
And people wonder why I'm not feeling the winter. It's the background state we can't get rid of
Can't wait for all the posts /s
I mean don't get me wrong it's way better than the summer which lasted until 3 weeks ago but it's still crazy how much above normal we've been consistently. Average high is already in the low 70s and will be in the 60s by next weekend. I don't think we've had a high below 60 yet which is nearly unheard of
And people wonder why I'm not feeling the winter. It's the background state we can't get rid of
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The 0Z 10/25/26 GEFS and especially EPS forecast means are suggesting a good chance for record weak SPV (back to 1978-9) during the 1st 10 days of Nov. The record low 10 mb zonal mean wind at 60N during Nov 1-10 is +11 and these ensemble means are suggesting a low 5-10 lower than that +11 record low is possible:
Here are the lowest for the four years hitting record lows (since these graphs started in 1978-9) during the first 10 days of Nov:
2016-7: ~11 low (+QBO, the only one of these four years with QBO similar to 2026)
2009-10 (El Nino): ~11 low during Nov 1-10 only (-QBO)
2005-6: ~12 low (dropping +QBO toward neutral)
2004-5 (El Nino): ~13 low (-QBO)
Here are the lowest for the four years hitting record lows (since these graphs started in 1978-9) during the first 10 days of Nov:
2016-7: ~11 low (+QBO, the only one of these four years with QBO similar to 2026)
2009-10 (El Nino): ~11 low during Nov 1-10 only (-QBO)
2005-6: ~12 low (dropping +QBO toward neutral)
2004-5 (El Nino): ~13 low (-QBO)
trackersacker
Member
tennessee storm
Member
Climate change is real … unfortunately
CJ hyping rain totals a week out when only one model is even showing a system. The worst model I might add
12z GFS sticking to its guns this Sunday. Doubeling Down
Then by wed/ Day 10 says to call 911 and press button 2 for swift water rescue.
Then by wed/ Day 10 says to call 911 and press button 2 for swift water rescue.
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At least we are seeing some backing away of the relative extreme warmth (mid-upper 80s) that was pretty prevalent in ensembles and occasionally on the ops. Still likely to hit some very warm days ahead of the incoming systems but a warm day ahead of a front has always felt different to me than being stuck in the doldrums of a never ending SER.
EAMT should extend the jet over the next couple of weeks which will help get the pattern more progressive and active. Wouldn't be surprising to see a couple of low end severe threats as we roll into the first half of the month.
EAMT should extend the jet over the next couple of weeks which will help get the pattern more progressive and active. Wouldn't be surprising to see a couple of low end severe threats as we roll into the first half of the month.
You
I know we say this every winter/year, but it never ceases to amaze me that we can get a month long warmer than normal pattern, but the below average cools snaps last about 2 days!??? It’s maddening
atleast the wet is coming with the heat!
I know we say this every winter/year, but it never ceases to amaze me that we can get a month long warmer than normal pattern, but the below average cools snaps last about 2 days!??? It’s maddening
Surprised it's a bit quiet consider that the pattern "Flip" is on deck soon. I prefer warmish and rain now... than 33 and rain. Just my 2 cents. STJ looks to start crankin' (GFS more intriguing which is more of a concern with "how much")
Brent
Member
I honestly think people are just skeptical because it always looks good in fantasy land
At one point we had a crashing front tomorrow for example. It's gonna be even warmer now! 83 on Wednesday! Today was only 77
tennessee storm
Member
We not gotten November yet lol…. Be while
After Days of advertising as much as 6+ inches of qpf across a large portion of the Carolinas for early the 1st week of November. The GFS did its Lucy routine and pulled the ole football on us at 6z this a.m.
We all knew it was coming. Both Ops GFS and Euro are bone dry out through next Thursday 11/5 from mby and points east.
Keep an eye on a cutoff low where it ends up next week. Was seeing it get cutoff up over northern plains, latest runs ( or atleast 6z gfs) has it getting cutoff southern plains meandering toward SE. Could enhance S-SE flow promote more storms / showers in evening, but we dont have any instability, Probbaly just have to rely on some other lift mechanism.
We all knew it was coming. Both Ops GFS and Euro are bone dry out through next Thursday 11/5 from mby and points east.
Keep an eye on a cutoff low where it ends up next week. Was seeing it get cutoff up over northern plains, latest runs ( or atleast 6z gfs) has it getting cutoff southern plains meandering toward SE. Could enhance S-SE flow promote more storms / showers in evening, but we dont have any instability, Probbaly just have to rely on some other lift mechanism.
The 0Z 10/27/26 EPS mean zonal wind at 10 mb/60N for the upcoming historic early Nov SSW event is forecasted to be a whopping 10-14 below the weakest on record (I don’t know how far back though) and 24-29 below the mean per ERA5 data Nov 3rd-10th!
Per what I’ve read, it takes on average 35-40 days this early in the season for it to work it’s way down and produce a full effect on the troposphere, which would mean mid-Dec.
Per what I’ve read, it takes on average 35-40 days this early in the season for it to work it’s way down and produce a full effect on the troposphere, which would mean mid-Dec.
Brent
Member
Accuweather doesn't have a single below normal day for another 3 weeks!
By then it's almost Thanksgiving
80s into Missouri the next couple days
By then it's almost Thanksgiving
80s into Missouri the next couple days
Lots of extreme skepticism. For a lot of this board it's been the driest 12 month period going back to the Great Depression. I'm firmly in the believe it when I see it camp.