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Severe New Years Severe Weather Event

This isn't looking good for communities ahead of it. It's really starting to pick up speed in it's rotation. I may have been wrong about the TDS earlier. But it looks like this thing could produce any second. BWER on it and a very nice hook forming.
 
Zander98al said:
This isn't looking good for communities ahead of it. It's really starting to pick up speed in it's rotation. I may have been wrong about the TDS earlier. But it looks like this thing could produce any second. BWER on it and a very nice hook forming.
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Yeah, CC is noisy and not a well defined drop
 
Idk. While I think there will be a some tornados and maybe even a strong one, I have a feeling this event will be capped off by poor mid level lapse rates, unless mini supercells take advantage of the environment and low level instability
 
The tornado threat looks like a big IF now ?. Lot of limiting factors.
Myfrotho704_ said:
Idk. While I think there will be a some tornados and maybe even a strong one, I have a feeling this event will be capped off by poor mid level lapse rates, unless mini supercells take advantage of the environment and low level instability
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Models don't look as bad as they were thankfully
 
HRRR continues to show very deep convection ahead of the line near peak heating in central and west Alabama. Something to keep a eye on. Screenshot_20220101-073339.png
 
Zander98al said:
I'm afraid the HRRR will be correct on supercell development. It was spot on, on storm evolution from Thursday. If the HRRR is correct these will have potential for producing some bad tornadoes
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12z HRRR still showing the development ahead of the main line
 
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