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Pattern NC Only Thread

Friday and Saturday still look good for rain chances. Friday is going to have some challenges with lower pwats but they really surge overnight Friday into Saturday. Saturdays setup has overperorming potential but morning stratus and fog will be present and given the time of year or may take ages to get that out. Euro suite clears the trough and drops pwats significantly Sunday while the op gfs isn't as clean and keeps a wetter pattern around
 
Rain Cold said:
I agree 100%.

And think about this...from 1996 to about 2003 or so, what an absolutely INCREDIBLE stretch of weather: A record hurricane (Fran), record flooding (Floyd), an all-time bust (Jan 2000 snowstorm), followed by another all-time bust (December 2000), a record ice storm, (December 2002), and several more notable events. What a period that was.
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You left off bertha and bonnie. Also icing on cake was Feb 28, 2004. Grand Finally from insane ULL dumped 17+ inches back this way.

1996- 2004 was a great stretch of historical events. Beleive Mayodan had a F3 decimate its downtown during this time period as well.
 
NCSNOW said:
You left off bertha and bonnie. Also icing on cake was Feb 28, 2004. Grand Finally from insane ULL dumped 17+ inches back this way.

1996- 2004 was a great stretch of historical events. Beleive Mayodan had a F3 decimate its downtown during this time period as well.
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I completely forgot about that one until now. I remember it as the Stoneville tornado. Search brings up March 98.

Same year in May, F3 in Clemmons in Forsyth. F4 in Caldwell same day. (don't remember the caldwell one but definitely clemmons)

96-04 really was something in hindsight.
 
Here starts the revisions (JHS language) - was tracking decent rain this weekend until today. Not so much - day 12 with 90+ and no rain. The wild swings - its feast or famine and watching that hope get wiped out by the next model run is exhausting, uncomfortable, and incredibly demoralizing to feel trapped in a pattern that refuses to break.

From GSP: Rain chances are trended downward for the weekend. Latest guidance also decreases PoP chances for Friday and Saturday
 
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YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
The Raleigh old timers still talk about that one. Think the population has doubled since 96. One of these days we’ll get another Fran—power likely would be out for weeks instead of days for some. They don’t call it the city of oaks for nothin.
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Old timers I mean that kinda stings......PGV gusted to 106 officially yad a few non official 110-120 gust on home stations etc....
 
SuperNET said:
Here starts the revisions (JHS language) - was tracking decent rain this weekend until today. Not so much - day 12 with 90+ and no rain. The wild swings - its feast or famine and watching that hope get wiped out by the next model run is exhausting, uncomfortable, and incredibly demoralizing to feel trapped in a pattern that refuses to break.

From GSP: Rain chances are trended downward for the weekend. Latest guidance also decreases PoP chances for Friday and Saturday
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Frustrating to watch this trend west and more sheared. Saturday had good potential to be a near washout and really give us a big batch of rain that doesn't have a lot of movement. I still think rain chances aren't dead but it's going to be painful watching the radar tomorrow and saturday as storms may have limited movement or a tendency to train, really wolf want to be the initiation point. For us father east the more sheared weaker trough puts Sunday in play but limited sfc convergence and lowering pwats are an issue
 
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Downeastnc said:
Old timers I mean that kinda stings......PGV gusted to 106 officially yad a few non official 110-120 gust on home stations etc....
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LOL, it was more a Raleigh demographic joke than anything. Most of us adults moved here after 96, and those that were here back then tend to be older. Some of them moved a county over to avoid us carpetbaggers moving in. (like SD 🤣 )

I was 16 for Fran, but the first storm I remember was Hugo when I was near PTI airport. Actually lost a few trees on that one believe it or not. CLT got the brunt of it though. Didn't realize how rare Hugo was till years later.
 
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Me and a good friend of mine who loves weather went to the Atlantic Beach for the landfall of Hurricane Bertha when it hit North Carolina in 1996. We were going to do the same thing for Fran. We got to around Burgaw on Interstate 40 and we could see this storm would be a totally different animal. We turned around and Fran followed us home with the eye passing over my residence in Southern Wake County. Fran is to me what Hazel was to my parents and what Helene is to people living in Western North Carolina.
 
0z cams firing up on the prefrontal trough tomorrow. Today knocks my last significant rain off the 30 day running total which plummets down to around .6
 
SD said:
Pwats have recovered nicely this morning, sb capes around 3k and mlcapes around 2k. Should start seeing some radar activity soon
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It will show 4” through the end of the run, .015” will verify! I hope you score but f the models the past 6 -8 months!
 
RBR71 said:
Nice little OFB heading south, see if it fires anything. 93 yesterday and 94 today, glad I'm inside a few days.
Side note: had a heart ablation at WakeMed yesterday so I'm gonna take it easy and enjoy the AC
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I heard the heat was getting everyone's health
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I got a decent downpour for a little bit, but not as much as you'd think. Cary got the goods so far tonight.
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SD said:
2 respectable chances of rain tomorrow. The first is earlier in the day when the shortwave over ga now passes through and the second is later in the evening/overnight as the main wave/trough approaches.
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Nws going with 60% chances of storms today and again tomorrow and yet both the 3k and the long range hrrr keep me dry through the entirety of their runs
 
Really surprised with the relatively limited coverage yesterday, considering the air mass in place and all those OFBs. Or not, seems par for course this year, what used to mean good storms and rains just haven't materialized 90% of the time
 
Shaggy said:
Nws going with 60% chances of storms today and again tomorrow and yet both the 3k and the long range hrrr keep me dry through the entirety of their runs
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They have both been a little on the conservative side with coverage the last few weeks especially the hrrr.
 
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