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Learning NAO and Snowfall Correlation

I've tended to find, as I've discussed on other occasions here, that the NAO really tends to implicate the frequency and intensity of Miller A cyclones/coastal low type winter storms in NC, which usually favor snow over the coastal plain, eastern, northwestern piedmont &/or mountains of NC, whereas for cold air damming events and these so-called "hybrid"/anafrontal storm types, the NAO is really not a huge player, if at all. Taking away the -NAO really tends to reduce the number of these coastal low setups around here but obviously doesn't
eradicate the potential for other winter storms.

Here again is the composite 500mb & MSLP patterns in NCEP Reanalysis for 184 Miller type A "days" and 205 type B winter storm "days" in NC, showing fairly clearly what large-scale pattern favors and tends to be associated with each storm type.
View attachment 20502

When you really start to dig into the numbers and now look at the snowfall from these storm types & the hybrid class of winter storms you can see which parts of NC benefit the most from Miller A cyclones often found during -NAOs.

Raleigh & the I-95 corridor's bread & butter are indeed these Miller type A storms. Once you take those away however, the playing field changes significantly.

In fact if you were able to remove Miller type A storms from NC's snowfall climatology, Raleigh's long-term snowfall climo would actually be the same as Charlotte's!

Things are much different when you look at Charlotte however, which actually tends to perform better in comparison during Miller B & especially these Hybrid/Anafrontal type storms (which are usually coupled w/ big +PNAs) that really don't occur in conjunction w/ -NAOs at least anywhere near as frequently. Furthermore, the reason (as @GaWx has noted ad nauseam) really don't see these significant -NAO correlations w/ snowfall in other areas of the southeastern US likely is because in those areas like GA, SC, AL, MS, etc you really just don't see intense Miller A cyclones all that frequently (w/ Jan 3-4 2018 & Mar 1993 being huge exceptions). This really makes sense because these areas of the deep south are further removed from the climatological position of the mid-latitude jet core and most favorable baroclinicity near the SE US coast in association w/ the Gulf Stream being adjacent to the relatively cooler SE US both of which aren't as conducive to intense coastal cyclones which again are significantly implicated by the -NAO. In a majority of cases where a Miller A winter storm occurs over NC these other areas of the SE US either see nothing or a preceding hybrid/anafrontal type winter storm during the earlier stages of the storm's overall life cycle.

Oth, if you progress further north into the mid-Atlantic and NE US, an overwhelming majority of their biggest winter storms come exclusively from coastal cyclones/Miller type A events. NC sits awkwardly in the middle of these 2 areas with one relying very, very heavily on the -NAO for large winter storms (NE US), whereas the other, the deep south, not so much.

View attachment 20503


Based on the above information & research, I really think if you take coastal cyclone winter storm cases out of the equation, the NAO really doesn't matter that much to NC's winter storm climatology.

Makes sense given the track and dynamics of the two types, without a -NAO we’re going to get a lot of cold rain with a Miller-A.


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I wanted to know why the mjo was in the nina phases, despite being in an elnino this past winter. I found that interesting. Even when the mjo got to the more niño phases, it still wasn't cold.
 
Hi Webb, planning on doing some research. I can't find a good way to plot data. Curious If you could give me the link to where you plotted these mapsNCEPR1 MSLPa & z500 NC Miller A & B Winter Storms (1948-2019).png
 
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