Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
923 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level disturbance and associated arctic cold front
will move through our region today. This will be followed bitter
cold arctic high pressure tonight into Friday morning. A warm-up
will begin Friday and extend into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 923 AM Wednesday...
...Winter Storm Warning for most of Central NC through 900 PM
tonight...
...Winter Weather Advisory for the SE Coastal Plain (Wayne and
Sampson through 900 PM...
Review of some of the latest 06z to 12z model guidance is coming
into collaboration(always a good thing as it increases confidence)
with what we are seeing in satellite data of cooling cloud tops east
of the mountains; a deeper more wrapped up mid/upper level system
along with additional supportive evidence in observational/boots on
the ground data of 2 inches already on the ground in the Triad and
impressive-slowing moving snow band over the Piedmont, in an axis
just east of the Triad and just west of the Triangle, extending from
Troy to Siler City to Hillsborough to Roxboro/Oxford, that will
likely produce snowfall rates locally up to 1 inch per hour.
And let`s not overlook the deep moist cold snow sounding at GSO. All
of which will supportive of wetter-snowier/slower/more robust
system, with great set-up for CSI mesoscale banding across central
NC Piedmont as suggestive by the 06z later this morning between 15
to 21z. This band will move slowly east throughout the remainder of
the morning and afternoon hours, eventually shifting east and out of
the area by the early evening. Given all the supporting evidence,
will be increasing the snow amounts from 5 to 6 inch to 5 to 8
inches across much of the NC Piedmont, tapering off to 2 to 4 inches
across the central and northern Coastal Plain counties, to 1 to 2
across the far SE counties.
Although slower than previous forecasts, due to the deeper more
wrapped system, once precip develops, temps will cool into the 20s.