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Pattern Microwave March

Webberweather53 said:
The only area that I have enough confidence in to say there's a legitimate shot of wintry weather with this storm are the mountains of Virginia and West Virginia, everyone else needs to sit & wait, but there's a pretty big ceiling on the northward progress of this storm w/ a big vortex sitting over southeast Canada and the Great Lakes.
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so is the roof the ceiling?
 
SD said:
so is the roof the ceiling?
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I probably could have worded that statement a little better, but the point I was trying to get across was how there really isn't a lot of room for this to move north atm when you have a massive PV lobe sitting near the US-CAN border in New England and the Great Lakes. Even if this tried to amplify and phase w/ that feature, PV lobes typically don't play too nicely w/ southern stream disturbances...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I probably could have worded that statement a little better, but the point I was trying to get across was how there really isn't a lot of room for this to move north atm when you have a massive PV lobe sitting near the US-CAN border in New England and the Great Lakes. Even if this tried to amplify and phase w/ that feature, PV lobes typically don't play too nicely w/ southern stream disturbances...
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I was making fun of Michael Jordans speech at halfltime of the Duke UNC game not you :)
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-ba...eiling-is-the-roof/12kr1a8tfk0nw1m7jbauykp9wp
 
Webberweather53 said:
I probably could have worded that statement a little better, but the point I was trying to get across was how there really isn't a lot of room for this to move north atm when you have a massive PV lobe sitting near the US-CAN border in New England and the Great Lakes. Even if this tried to amplify and phase w/ that feature, PV lobes typically don't play too nicely w/ southern stream disturbances...
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How much further south will this storm be able to realistically track? I would feel much better about what you are saying if the storm was already tracking to our south on the models. However, It's still to our north.
 
SD said:
I was making fun of Michael Jordans speech at halfltime of the Duke UNC game not you :)
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Lol my friend and I were discussing that at work this morning and trying to figure it out.

Usually with these systems, the PV looks stronger in the 7-10 day range than it actually turns out to be. So what looked like a ceiling often ends up being a mirage. It would be nice for a change to see the PV press stronger than it initially looked like it would. My feeling is yesterday's 12z EURO is about the farthest south this has a shot at going. More likely, the final swath of snow will end up near Webber's high confidence area around the VA/WVA mountain areas and north from there.
 
tennessee storm said:
yeah... models really seem to be struggling big time with the mjo pattern.. still think there is going be some big severe weather to deal with... million dollar question with model struggling is where...
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I agree. I think this could be a potentially bad severe event. Most likely east Arkansas, Tennessee, north Mississippi and north Alabama. Late Saturday afternoon and evening. Maybe overnight
 
Storm5 said:
Damn mid Atlantic
efc68fe1a4ea81d37cfd7924ce61e28b.jpg



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Ugh....salt in a gaping wound. Damn them.


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mrdaddyman said:
How much further south will this storm be able to realistically track? I would feel much better about what you are saying if the storm was already tracking to our south on the models. However, It's still to our north.
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Very true, but how often do we actually have a storm to our north consistently trend south in the medium range? Realistically this could be squished into oblivion like the clipper that was supposed to hit New England this past weekend (oops!). This disturbance overall has been slowing down w/ time in the guidance, which has allotted more time for the vortex over Quebec and Ontario to catch up to it and squash it, and the trough in British Columbia has slowed and is interacting more with the ULL underneath the far North Pacific Rex block, which is forcing the downstream pattern to amplify w/ steeper western US/Rockies ridge & eastern US trough, the GEFS is only now beginning to figure this out...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Very true, but how often do we actually have a storm to our north consistently trend south in the medium range? Realistically this could be squished into oblivion like the clipper that was supposed to hit New England this past weekend (oops!). This disturbance overall has been slowing down w/ time in the guidance, which has allotted more time for the vortex over Quebec and Ontario to catch up to it and squash it, and the trough in British Columbia has slowed and is interacting more with the ULL underneath the far North Pacific Rex block, which is forcing the downstream pattern to amplify w/ steeper western US/Rockies ridge & eastern US trough, the GEFS is only now beginning to figure this out...
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The dreaded squashed storm! Seen that way too many times this winter.
 
I'm not fooled, I'm not fooled, but if there was some truth to this and I was still in far North Georgia, this would have me seriously considering heading to the south end of the winter storm for an hour or so...
 
tennessee storm said:
better make it northern ky if trend continues... just saying.
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Huh? I'm pretty sure no one ever said they were going to southern Kentucky and expecting big snow totals. And second have you not been watching the models the last 24 hours? Northern Tennessee went from a high of 65 on Saturday on the 6z to around 38 at noon with possible back end snow on the 12z. Pretty sure this storm has been creeping way south and not the other way around.
 
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