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Tropical Melissa

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...MELISSA STARTING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...
...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE CONTINUING IN THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

———————
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 22.9N 74.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 25.1N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 29.1N 70.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 40.7N 58.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 46.6N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1800Z 52.0N 45.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z 56.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z 57.0N 27.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin
 
Is there any video from that Hurricane Josh guy? Man, he has ⚽️ 🏈 ⚽️’s the size of beach balls!
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Also, has anyone heard from Josh since the storm?
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Brent said:
Jeff about 10 miles from Josh did make a post last night and said it was really really bad.

But Josh usually always disappears for a few days I've noticed
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GeorgiaGirl said:
It wouldn't be surprising if we didn't for at least another day or two honestly. He doesn't carry a Starlink with him and comms are bad to pretty much gone in the parish he was at.

If we get towards the end of the weekend and still nothing, it'll be fair to wonder.
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Regarding Josh, this is a Floyd Green tweet from 9:03PM:

 
GaWx said:
Regarding Josh, this is a Floyd Green tweet from 9:03PM:

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Yeah I kind of figured he was trying to help and not caring about social media

Y'all gotta remember he's done this before he's not stupid... He chased a typhoon even stronger than this in the Philippines years ago
 
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GaWx said:
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…oh god, I’d probably be the ladies who were trying to hold their ears shut here.

Sounds like he chose well on structure to shelter in. If I don’t forget, I may try to watch his 20ish minute video when he’s ready to push it out.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
…oh god, I’d probably be the ladies who were trying to hold their ears shut here.

Sounds like he chose well on structure to shelter in. If I don’t forget, I may try to watch his 20ish minute video when he’s ready to push it out.
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Oh yeah he always goes for a good structure that's sometimes why he may not be in the worst winds etc

But dang to hear him admit it may be the worst hurricane of the 83 he's done

His data may even get mentioned when the NHC does the final report in a few months I believe it has before. That will probably decide if the record tying 892 holds up or not
 
VegasEagle said:
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This probably wasn't even the worst of it... Apparently they exceeded G force at some point and had to get out of the storm on more than one pass. Like that never happens

But as crazy as it is I don't think a plane has been lost since the 1950s in the Atlantic

The Pacific had one lost in 1974

Hugo almost had one lost apparently
 
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Live feed from chaser Jeff P. is linked at the bottom.

He’s been stationed in a house in Santa Cruz (~20 miles inland and ~15 miles W of worst wind damage. Yesterday, he/his host tried to drive to Black River but could go only a couple of miles west to Lacovia due to roads that were washed out, had big potholes, had deep mud from the prior 4-6+ feet of extreme rainfall induced flooding/landslides coming off the nearby ridges, and had debris such as trees and utility poles (some made of concrete!) blocking the road. So, they kept having to turnaround and try different routes to no avail and thus went back to home base. Here’s a link to the recording of that 2 hr, 51 min never a dull moment live feed from yesterday (this isn’t live):



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In today’s (LIVE) feed, it looks like they took a different route initially to the E and SE (i.e. further away from the worst hit area) instead of W. Then they turned back W further S (only couple of miles from coast). They went W through Junction (15 miles SSE of Santa Cruz), Bull Savanna, and Flagaman. They were temporarily stopped at Pedro Cross, just a few miles E of Treasure Beach, because the road was being cleared. They resumed a NW course approaching Newell.

Live feed:


Edit: they’re now at Wally Wash Pond (11:33AM EDT) moving NW just a few miles SE of Black River.
 
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For anyone interested, that last YouTube link is no longer to a livestream.

Here’s an updated Jeff P. (with his host) livestream from near Ground Zero. This is from decimated Black River on the coast. Jeff was just saying they need helicopters there ASAP because there are a whole lot of folks who are injured and need to be airlifted to a hospital:

 
Brent said:
This probably wasn't even the worst of it... Apparently they exceeded G force at some point and had to get out of the storm on more than one pass. Like that never happens

But as crazy as it is I don't think a plane has been lost since the 1950s in the Atlantic

The Pacific had one lost in 1974

Hugo almost had one lost apparently
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I remember a plane was almost lost during Hugo when it was at peak intensity near the islands. A local TV Met here at the time, Ray Boylan, was a former Hurricane Hunter and I remember him interviewing one of his friends who was on the flight a couple weeks later after the storm passed through here.
 
Here are before and after SSTs to see how much Melissa cooled the ocean on and near its track:

10/24/25:
IMG_4964.png

10/30/25:
IMG_5087.png

So, it cooled only ~1C/2F around Jamaica/E Cuba (from slightly over 30C to near or slightly over 29C). Unfortunately, that wasn’t nearly enough to keep Melissa from exploding. Much of the area around the Bahamas also cooled some (perhaps ~0.5C/1F) but the full cooling may have to wait til the 10/31 SST map. Also, Melissa wasn’t as strong and was moving much more quickly through the Bahamas thus likely meaning less cooling influence.

In contrast, note that most of the Gulf and far W Caribbean cooled hardly at all, if any, as they were too far west to be cooled by Melissa.
 
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GaWx said:
Here are before and after SSTs to see how much Melissa cooled the ocean on and near its track:

10/24/25:
View attachment 175881

10/30/25:
View attachment 175882

So, it cooled only ~1C/2F around Jamaica/E Cuba (from slightly over 30C to near or slightly over 29C). Unfortunately, that wasn’t nearly enough to keep Melissa from exploding. Much of the area around the Bahamas also cooled some (perhaps ~0.5C/1F) but the full cooling may have to wait til the 10/31 SST map. Also, Melissa wasn’t as strong and was moving much more quickly through the Bahamas thus likely meaning less cooling influence.

In contrast, note that most of the Gulf and far W Caribbean cooled hardly at all, if any, as they were too far west to be cooled by Melissa.
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It's very hard to get upwelling in the Caribbean sea. Particularly that area. It's routinely the warmest water in the Atlantic and the warm water goes well below the surface.
 
GaWx said:
Here are before and after SSTs to see how much Melissa cooled the ocean on and near its track:

10/24/25:
View attachment 175881

10/30/25:
View attachment 175882

So, it cooled only ~1C/2F around Jamaica/E Cuba (from slightly over 30C to near or slightly over 29C). Unfortunately, that wasn’t nearly enough to keep Melissa from exploding. Much of the area around the Bahamas also cooled some (perhaps ~0.5C/1F) but the full cooling may have to wait til the 10/31 SST map. Also, Melissa wasn’t as strong and was moving much more quickly through the Bahamas thus likely meaning less cooling influence.

In contrast, note that most of the Gulf and far W Caribbean cooled hardly at all, if any, as they were too far west to be cooled by Melissa.
Click to expand...
Only 1 to 2c but imagine how much energy it takes to cool an ocean. That's alot of energy taken out of the ocean
 
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