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Severe May 25-27 2022 Severe

Brick Tamland

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Round 2 is supposed to come through here around 3 or 4. So far I think the storms earlier this week were more impressive when we weren't under a watch and only a level 1 risk.
 

Brick Tamland

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Most of the watch has been dropped now for NC except for a few counties in the NE part of the state. Looks like this one was a dud compared to the storms we had earlier this week.
 

SD

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Or we could just skip all that and go straight to complaining and passive aggressive criticizing.
I mean I don't think the way the spc threat levels are being conveyed are doing many favors but the expectation by the public that a severe risk or watch means they are going to get wiped off the planet isn't helping either
 

Brick Tamland

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I mean I don't think the way the spc threat levels are being conveyed are doing many favors but the expectation by the public that a severe risk or watch means they are going to get wiped off the planet isn't helping either
Yeah, their descriptions for the levels make no sense. WRAL mets even say that's why they just say level 1 through 5 and don't use their descriptions. But it's not going to help any with the general public with how the last three severe threats here ended up versus what they forecasted with the threat levels, and when they had a watch versus not having a watch.
 

SD

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Yeah, their descriptions for the levels make no sense. WRAL mets even say that's why they just say level 1 through 5 and don't use their descriptions. But it's not going to help any with the general public with how the last three severe threats here ended up versus what they forecasted with the threat levels, and when they had a watch versus not having a watch.
Soooooooo what were you expectations today?
 

Brick Tamland

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
358 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

NCZ040-041-076-077-272030-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-
358 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Harnett, northeastern Lee, southwestern Wake and southeastern Chatham
Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 358 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Sanford, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cary, Fuquay-Varina, Angier, Apex, Holly Springs, Broadway, New Hill,
Harris Lake Boat Launch, Seminole and Shearon Harris Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.
 

Rain Cold

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Soooooooo what were you expectations today?
If a severe storm or tornado doesn't suck up his house, it's a bust. It's the same tired out rant all the time.

I get it that marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, high doesn't really tell you anything empirical. But neither does level 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Or A, B, C, D, E. Or micro, small, medium, large, el grande mucho. Or no, yes, maybe, huh, ask again later. I honestly don't think there's ever going to be a method that will mean the same thing to everyone. IMO, they've gotten too cute with all the levels. Low, moderate, and high is simple and quite enough to categorize the threat.

As far as watches go, I can understand my 4 year old niece or my 74 year old mother in law not understanding that a severe thunderstorm watch still matters even if your house doesn't experience 70 mph wind gusts. But somebody that has a passion for weather and spends hours upon hours on weather boards year after year and doesn't get that a watch isn't always a bust if you don't get rain is a real head-scratcher for me.
 
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Brick Tamland

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If a severe storm or tornado doesn't suck up his house, it's a bust. It's the same tired out rant all the time.

I get it that marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, high doesn't really tell you anything empirical. But neither does level 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Or A, B, C, D, E. Or micro, small, medium, large, el grande mucho. Or no, yes, maybe, huh, ask again later. I honestly don't think there's ever going to be a method that will mean the same thing to everyone. IMO, they've gotten too cute with all the levels. Low, moderate, and high is simple and quite enough to categorize the threat.

As far as watches go, I can understand my 4 year old niece or my 74 year old mother in law not understanding that a severe thunderstorm watch still matters even if your house doesn't experience 70 mph wind gusts. But somebody that has a passion for weather and spends hours upon hours on weather boards year after year and doesn't get that a watch isn't always a bust if you don't get rain is a real head-scratcher for me.

It's a head scratcher to me why we seemed to have more action the past week in NC when the threat levels from the SPC were lower and we weren't under a watch versus when they had us under a higher threat level and a watch. Maybe they just had a bad week forecasting severe weather for us. I know it's not a guarantee. I am just saying it's odd how things ended up with the last three severe threats we had. And it's not just about what I get. It's about how things turned out overall for the whole state. We had more tornado warnings when we weren't under a watch than when we were, and two confirmed tornaodes when we weren't under any kind of watch at all in Charlotte and Durham, and we were only under a level 1 risk.
 

Detective WX

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Obviously not in the SE, but the Dakotas eastward to MI are expecting a major severe outbreak today.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the
central Plains today into tonight. Large to giant hail, 60-80 mph
gusts, and tornadoes are probable, including the possibility for a
couple of intense long-track tornadoes.

...Outbreak of Severe Storms and Tornadoes Likely Today Across Parts
of Northeast South Dakota, Far Southeast North Dakota and Western
and Northern Minnesota...


...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level low, and an associated powerful 90 to 100 knot
mid-level jet, will eject quickly north-northeastward across the
central and northern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move
northward across the eastern Dakotas. To the east of the surface low
track, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place, with MLCAPE
forecast to increase into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range by late
morning. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves into the
central Plains this morning, scattered convection is forecast to
initiate in central Nebraska. These storms are expected to increase
in coverage, moving north-northeastward into eastern South Dakota by
early afternoon. A complex of storms is expected to quickly
organize, moving north-northeastward across northeastern South
Dakota, far southeast North Dakota into western and northern
Minnesota. Severe storms and tornadoes appear likely with this
convective system from this afternoon into the early evening.

Several factors are coming together for an outbreak of severe storms
today across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi
Valley. The first is that the system will be particularly organized,
as the upper-level low rapidly deepens and the trough takes on a
negative tilt. The second is that the exit region of the mid-level
jet will be associated with a strong and focused band of large-scale
ascent. The mid-level jet is forecast to move out of the base of the
trough at nearly 50 knots, which will provide support for an
outbreak. The third factor is that the mid-level and low-level jets
will become coupled. This will strengthen lift and create strong
deep-layer shear very favorable for severe storms. Intense
supercells will be likely within a large convective cluster by
afternoon.

As the low-level jet consolidates in west-central Minnesota to the
east of the upper-level low, shear in the boundary layer will become
favorable for tornadoes. Tornadoes will be most likely from
northeast South Dakota north-northeastward across western Minnesota.
Forecast soundings along this corridor, to the west of the low-level
jet, have 0-3 km storm-relative helicities in the 350 to 450 m2/s2
range. This, along with curved hodographs, will contribute to a
potential for a few strong tornadoes. One or two long-track
tornadoes will be possible as well.
Both strong deep-layer shear and
steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.0 C/km range, will be
favorable for large hail. The more intense supercells will produce
hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The cluster of storms
is expected to gradually organize into a bowing line segment by late
afternoon, moving across northwest and north-central Minnesota,
where a swath of wind gusts in the 60 to 70 knot range appears
likely.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/30/2022

And we're already off to a flying start with a violent squall line moving from Sioux City to Northern Iowa in the wee hours similar to 4/27 wake up round...
 
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