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Pattern May 2026

snowc said:
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Just think, we get through today, and saturday, and then we have a nice week!
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Rinse and repeat. Same cape levels! @Shaggy @Downeastnc @NCSNOW how you guys doing with the 70+ degree DPs and 90+ degree temps?! Fropa just passed here and its 85/59.
 
GaWx said:
Looking forward to low TDs for June 3-4!
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I just hope this rainy pattern keeps up all summer, with cooling rains, between the steam heat and stillness. Much better than Bermuda high blast furnace smoggy dry with the temps getting turned up day after day. Tstorm hail, mostly cloudy, storm winds, so much better than 103 and nothing.
 
I had 83.5 around 5:30. I question readings like what you’re describing. Sounds like the sun hit just right about that time. Stations say they prevent direct sun light, but most of them are wrong. Censors should be in the shade or in a vented box.
 
I’ve gotten some rain from thunderstorms this evening with possibly more to come. It hasn’t been that much so far (<0.25” I think). I’ll get the totals in the morning.

Edit: I’ve got yesterday’s rains near 0.20” (5/30) and only a T so far today (5/31 through 4:20PM). That gets me to ~2.7” MTD. Can I get to 3” by day’s end?
 
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Most of the "chatter" in the energy and agriculture communities in the past week has sprung from a somewhat vague/hidden source that suggested that the so-called "Super El Nino" was going to make for a cold summer across the entire lower 48 states in the JJA semester. The problem is, of course, that the current ENSO state is a weak signature, evolving and taking a different course than what was seen in the summer of 2015, the only true "Super El Nino" on record. The sea surface temperatures then featured a very warm Indian Ocean, eastern Pacific Basin and Gulf of Alaska, and a huge Atlantic Ocean positive hydrothermal anomaly. In effect, there was a vast area of water that was much warmer than normal in addition to the equatorial realm, which was a full basin case (between the Marianas Trench and the Galapagos Islands.

That difference is important because it tells you that the apparent weather which occurred 11 years ago is unlikely to happen this time around. Also, the ENSO structure is still evolving, and likely will not reach a peak until perhaps November. The MDR of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean is actually a little colder than what it was a couple of months ago, as is the Gulf of Alaska. If you have not noticed, most of the model forecasts, like those of the summer of 2015, are fairly warm. You see, a true "super size" oceanic warm event supports a mostly hot summer in the lower 48 states, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. There will be advances of cold upper lows form the Aleutian Islands these next two weeks, but that is typical of June and would allow some ferocious heat build-ups in Mexico, Texas and the Great Plains. Thunderstorm risks will be higher but further north close to the Canadian border. Tropical cyclone risks will be less, with more "homegrown" disturbance off of Cape Hatteras, in the Gulf of Mexico, and later in the Caribbean Sea. 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major category cyclones remains my call, with the greatest strike potential being from Florida and up along the Eastern Seaboard.

Just so you are wondering, I think the third week of September, like a traditional El Nino, will see a pattern breakdown that resurrects the southern branch storm track and sets up excessive rainfall, thunderstorms and cooler temperatures in an arc from California to Texas to Florida/Georgia. But before we get there, plenty of hot weather dented by the occasional cold front and convection in the north central, Great Lakes, and Northeast.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, May 30, 2026 at 11:45 P.M. CT​
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I don't think there's been a day without rain since I got back from Charleston/Edisto. Granted, the most recent days have been light, and I'm not sure how much we'll get here with this storm that pushed over.
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No rain for yesterday, I believe, but there has been a steady rain for at least the last two hours of today.
 
Unfortunately IMBY we missed out on all the rain yesterday. Dry today so we wound up with just a hair under 2" for the month. Not good at all but at least it's greened everything up. Crossed 7" of rain for the year to date which is at least some good news as we enter the sixth month of the year. ☠️
 
weather bubba said:
The June thread isn't up yet but it looks like we are going into the oven after next weekend with several 100 degree days possible according to the GFS. We had better enjoy the cooler temperatures this upcoming week.
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This is why you don’t want dry air masses in the summer months. They inevitably always heat up and turn into the death ridge and become impossible to move.
 
Operational GFS troll run overmixing/overcooking temps. All other models, op and AI ECMWF and AIGFS are nowhere near as warm.

With a few 90/71°F days then more backdoor polar cold fronts. Couldn't ask for a more ugly start to June. Hate this bone-dry air here today.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Most of the "chatter" in the energy and agriculture communities in the past week has sprung from a somewhat vague/hidden source that suggested that the so-called "Super El Nino" was going to make for a cold summer across the entire lower 48 states in the JJA semester. The problem is, of course, that the current ENSO state is a weak signature, evolving and taking a different course than what was seen in the summer of 2015, the only true "Super El Nino" on record. The sea surface temperatures then featured a very warm Indian Ocean, eastern Pacific Basin and Gulf of Alaska, and a huge Atlantic Ocean positive hydrothermal anomaly. In effect, there was a vast area of water that was much warmer than normal in addition to the equatorial realm, which was a full basin case (between the Marianas Trench and the Galapagos Islands.

That difference is important because it tells you that the apparent weather which occurred 11 years ago is unlikely to happen this time around. Also, the ENSO structure is still evolving, and likely will not reach a peak until perhaps November. The MDR of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean is actually a little colder than what it was a couple of months ago, as is the Gulf of Alaska. If you have not noticed, most of the model forecasts, like those of the summer of 2015, are fairly warm. You see, a true "super size" oceanic warm event supports a mostly hot summer in the lower 48 states, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. There will be advances of cold upper lows form the Aleutian Islands these next two weeks, but that is typical of June and would allow some ferocious heat build-ups in Mexico, Texas and the Great Plains. Thunderstorm risks will be higher but further north close to the Canadian border. Tropical cyclone risks will be less, with more "homegrown" disturbance off of Cape Hatteras, in the Gulf of Mexico, and later in the Caribbean Sea. 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major category cyclones remains my call, with the greatest strike potential being from Florida and up along the Eastern Seaboard.

Just so you are wondering, I think the third week of September, like a traditional El Nino, will see a pattern breakdown that resurrects the southern branch storm track and sets up excessive rainfall, thunderstorms and cooler temperatures in an arc from California to Texas to Florida/Georgia. But before we get there, plenty of hot weather dented by the occasional cold front and convection in the north central, Great Lakes, and Northeast.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, May 30, 2026 at 11:45 P.M. CT​
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This sounds a lot like the way 2002 went to me.
 
Of course ants got into my Tempest just before this wet period hit so I have no idea how much for this May. I’m guessing 5-6” as we’ve had rain everyday for what seems like a week and a half.
 
Rain started here ~45 minutes ago and it has gotten heavy at times as boundaries collide over this area per radar.
This is a really nice rain that I’m thinking will approach or just exceed 1” and could go a good ways up from there if this continues awhile. There’s been no thunder/lightning associated with this.

Update at 7:30PM: rain is still falling (going on 1.5 hours) and there have been additional heavy periods. As a result, I’m very likely near 2” at a minimum and counting! That makes this the best rain in months!

My street drains are handling this well. In the past with a rain of this magnitude, it would typically flood. Thus I think the city digging the nearby ditches deeper is helping the flow into the drains!
 
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Cue my surprise from ILM this morning. Knew this "shield" of rain that was discussed was fantasy.

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain will fall early this morning mainly across South
Carolina, then a wave of gusty thunderstorms is possible late
this afternoon into this evening.

The wave of rain produced via isentropic lift in eastern South
Carolina covers a much more limited geographic area than models
24 hours ago were suggesting. In terms of depicting the current
precipitation observed on radar, the best models currently
appear to be the 00z NAM and 00z HREF. The 03z RRFS and 05z HRRR
are both too dry in the Myrtle Beach/Georgetown area.
 
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