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Pattern May 2026

Paging RainCold
Was the rain cold merch official! ??
You can’t help out a fat, tall person??
3xlt please! 👍🏾
 
0z eps and op with nearly 4 inches now. Falloff is going to be reminiscent of January.

In all seriousness if that front doesn't backdoor or get pushed through there isn't a lot to cap rain chances for an extended run here. Its going to be an early jump into summer though with those 65-70+ dews just hanging out
 
SD said:
0z eps and op with nearly 4 inches now. Falloff is going to be reminiscent of January.

In all seriousness if that front doesn't backdoor or get pushed through there isn't a lot to cap rain chances for an extended run here. Its going to be an early jump into summer though with those 65-70+ dews just hanging out
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I'm still kind of hopeful for a 1994 like flip in the pattern. May that year was bone dry and then everything changed. That June-August period was one of our wettest summers ever and not hot at all either.

It's still possible of course we have to wait until September though like we did in 2002.
 
JHS said:
I'm still kind of hopeful for a 1994 like flip in the pattern. May that year was bone dry and then everything changed. That June-August period was one of our wettest summers ever and not hot at all either.

It's still possible of course we have to wait until September though like we did in 2002.
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I'm not sure it's good to be hopeful of a 1994 like flip. There was 25" of rain in some areas from Tropical Storm Alberto in July 1994. Major flooding.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
I'm not sure it's good to be hopeful of a 1994 like flip. There was 25" of rain in some areas from Tropical Storm Alberto in July 1994. Major flooding.
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Yeah, that was not very good at all of course, but even without that those 3 months were very wet, and no analogs ever match up exactly. There is a decent chance of no tropical impacts on the US this year if the El Nino is as strong as forecast.
 
Take a break, if you will, from the seemingly endless barrage of hype and misinformation about El Nino. Concentrate instead on what the start of summer in North America will be like, as the position of jet streams and subtropical highs is far more important, for now at least, then what some numerical model is blathering on about the strength of the +ENSO signal. To settle this matter, we should have a basin-wide high-end moderate El Nino (perhaps bumping to a 1.5 deg C positive hydrothermal anomaly) in the equatorial Pacific Basin. There unquestionably will be arid and torrid weather in the equatorial regions of the Northern Hemisphere. This scenario calls for an immense Saharan heat ridge that occasionally bubbles up into central Europe with massive heatwaves, and a continued building of a Persian heat ridge that sends temperature skyrocketing from southwestern through central Asia. Moisture pooling from the monsoon allied with Phase 2 of the Madden-Julian Oscillation should allow for a normally wet precipitation array across India and Indochina, while the Philippines, Taiwan and Japan must depend on the increase in typhoon formation. Just remember that if the tropical cyclones steer east of the Japanese Archipelago in September, both East Asia and the eastern half of North America will see a cooler turn that might carry on into winter, when models suggest that warm Pacific waters will cool and lead to even more bizarre changes from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.

We need to go back and remind ourselves that this is a formative, yet well-defined, El Nino. Classic outcomes suggest a mostly very hot and dry June along and below 40 N Latitude. Marine layer considerations may keep the major California cities out of the hot air, but much of the West will be hot and increasingly dry. Ridging over Texas and the Gulf Coast may pulse/expand into the Midwest and Appalachia, so much of the USA should have warm or hot anomalies next month (as may be the case in the last week of May, such as what the NAEFS ensemble is showing). Development of Mesoscale Convective Systems will shift northward after Memorial Day weekend, concurrent with discrete supercells and QLCS cases from the Missouri Valley into the Great Lakes. It is possible that a weakness at 500MB may allow for higher dewpoints to advect into the south central USA. But the lack of profound dynamics argues against major cumulonimbi development in OK, TX, LA and AR. Any cool intrusions of not will likely stay along and above Interstate 80 across the lower 48 states.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 11:15 P.M. CT​
 
There's a decent chance of some strong boomers across much of Georgia today.

SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 439 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

A Marginal risk of Severe thunderstorms has been introduced to the
area for today. Southerly winds will drive moisture values and
instability up through central Georgia up the I-75 corridor. MUCAPE
values exceeding 2000 J/KG will build through the afternoon and most
High-res models are indicating development along the sea breeze
beginning south of Macon. From there, thunderstorm potential could
develop along the outflow boundaries given how unstable the
environment will likely be.

Highs in the upper 80s and low 90s will feed the afternoon
thunderstorm potential, with steep lapse rates aloft (7C/KM), the
hail risk is at least possible this afternoon as well. The strongest
storms will likely contain nickle to quarter sized hail along with
the potential for strong to damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.
 
Lol... I will say at least this May has been more normal than the last few months. We always seem to get one last cold front around Memorial Day Screenshot_20260517-091517.The Weather Channel.png
 
SD said:
losing a quarter to third inch of soil moisture per day through ET, we need a lot of rain
View attachment 195962
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I've never seen a map before that shows soil evaporation rates for an area. That is very interesting. Where might I be able to find that for future reference? Hopefully the coming cold front will hang up over us on Thursday and this will be the focus for some of the rain the Southeast so badly needs.
 
weather bubba said:
I've never seen a map before that shows soil evaporation rates for an area. That is very interesting. Where might I be able to find that for future reference? Hopefully the coming cold front will hang up over us on Thursday and this will be the focus for some of the rain the Southeast so badly needs.
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I am sure it's available somewhere but that map is a southernwx exclusive. I will post it as much as I can over the coming days/weeks until we get out of the drought or I start getting some of these on the site and updating daily.
 
NCSNOW said:
Braves been in a delay. Checked future radar and GA might score here soon. These moving se to nw heading

View attachment 195974
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Think I saw somewhere that some SC Mets were talking of the possibilities of some small scattered storms possible this afternoon with the daytime heating and what little bit of instability there is in the atmosphere.
 
89°F high today, but it didn't feel even close to being summery, because it was a cold 59°F low in the morning and daytime dewpoints were lowish. 87.9/62.2°F max/min for my riverfront PWS.

No one can convince me otherwise that a day like today is anything like an 88/73°F July day with building storms, because it's not just the 3 PM temp that matters.
 
CumulonimbusIncus said:
89°F high today, but it didn't feel even close to being summery, because it was a cold 59°F low in the morning and daytime dewpoints were lowish. 87.9/62.2°F max/min for my riverfront PWS.

No one can convince me otherwise that a day like today is anything like an 88/73°F July day with building storms, because it's not just the 3 PM temp that matters.
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In isolation, sure, but when it's been colder recently, 94 today in the full sun felt a lot hotter than an 88-degree day in July will, when I've been experiencing 80s for 6+ weeks every day.
 
IMG_4494.jpegIMG_4532.jpeg IMG_4531.jpegView attachment 195983

Pretty decent “crisp” cumulonimbus from my vantage point with a storm on the NE side of ATL this evening. Probably good immediate drought relief for those folks up that way. I surprisingly did get a moderate shower for 5-10 mins, and had some mammatus and a rainbow to go along with it.
 

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