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Pattern May 2026

SD said:
I've never seen a place so good at being bad. Closed ridge for days then mega trough nothing beneficial in between
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Genuinely feels like living in New South Wales Australia again around here since spring of 2021. Fire and flood with nothing in between.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Hope y’all like snow rainView attachment 195926
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What I'm wondering is if the effects will be different because the temp contrast is less since the surrounding waters are much warmer now.

I know that is not a novel idea, but it seems like it has to make a difference. I like that high contrast image, though.
 
Guess Monday is gonna be a big event out this way!??IMG_5501.jpegIMG_5502.jpeg
 
Rain Cold said:
What I'm wondering is if the effects will be different because the temp contrast is less since the surrounding waters are much warmer now.

I know that is not a novel idea, but it seems like it has to make a difference. I like that high contrast image, though.
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The surrounding warmer waters are taken into account by using RONI instead of ONI. Even RONI is progged to be near or at record highs by the majority of the better ENSO models. The main exception is the UKMET, which has RONI peaking only in the ~+1.8-1.9 area. The warmest RONI on record is 1982-3, which was quite the memorable winter for the SE US!
 
This warm up/ Heat wave / whatever you want to call it Sun-Thurs. Is gonna be short lived. Looks like we get a shot at some rain east of the Apps next Fri/Sat as the holiday weekend starts off/ Right on cue lol. Then Memorial day has highs in the upper 60s low 70's here per the Euro.

I did a CFS scroll from the latest run, which runs all the way out into mid June. We would all cash out on the 2m temps Lottery Ticket its selling. SW Conus/Texas get the 90s, we stay in the 70's to near 80 entire run for highs. Gulf coast catches a 3 dayish spell of 90's, but it never gets up this way. I can handle the qpf map as well. It all comes from Memorial day weekend -June 15. CFS /Grain of salt etc. But maybe the summer torch we all generally deal with gets delayed or better yet denied.

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NCSNOW said:
This warm up/ Heat wave / whatever you want to call it Sun-Thurs. Is gonna be short lived. Looks like we get a shot at some rain east of the Apps next Fri/Sat as the holiday weekend starts off/ Right on cue lol. Then Memorial day has highs in the upper 60s low 70's here per the Euro.

I did a CFS scroll from the latest run, which runs all the way out into mid June. We would all cash out on the 2m temps Lottery Ticket its selling. SW Conus/Texas get the 90s, we stay in the 70's to near 80 entire run for highs. Gulf coast catches a 3 dayish spell of 90's, but it never gets up this way. I can handle the qpf map as well. It all comes from Memorial day weekend -June 15. CFS /Grain of salt etc. But maybe the summer torch we all generally deal with gets delayed or better yet denied.

View attachment 195930
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Problem with that CFS run is I've seen these outputs for the last couple of months. I've posted some of them. It has basically been kick the can for some time. Will this run be right? Time will tell. And I would rather see the higher QPF output than not.
 
FallsLake said:
Problem with that CFS run is I've seen these outputs for the last couple of months. I've posted some of them. It has basically been kick the can for some time. Will this run be right? Time will tell. And I would rather see the higher QPF output than not.
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Yes on precip. Temps it has been pretty accurate, in the ball park of having the right idea. qpf maps are misleading late spring summer. If a model has a strong line or two of storms rolling through, its gonna paint 2-4 inch qpf. Pretty sure thats what its doing here. but the temp patern looking sexy is from NA H5 pattern = East coast troughs.

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0.07" here. Obviously, not much but the grass is very wet on the outside...ha! Looks like the pattern shifts to a more favorable pattern for rain/storms starting the middle of next week. Crossing fingers!
 
There was only a slight improvement overall in the SE Drought Monitor map issued today vs a week ago (though virtually none worsened a category (a small area on NC/VA border and another area in S VA actually did if you look hard), most locations still had no change in their category).
 
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This evening it was warm (mid to low 80s), but dewpoints were only in the upper 30s, something sometimes hardly seen in an entire May in this area. So, that along with a decent breeze meant enjoyable walking vs what’s typical for mid May. It was 100% sunny.
 
48°F low yet again this morning, 2 weeks before summer begins meteorologically. I hate just about everything at this point, every day this morning I've waken up with a runny nose
 
Lows in this area were in the mid 50s, significantly below the low 60s normal. Dewpoints are still way down in the low 40s.
 
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