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Pattern May 2026

0.00 today
Be late Sept early Oct before we get a night this cold again. Praying jack frost stays away. Gonna be a close call away from heat islands.

GSO Airport is sitting at 8.2 inches for 2026. Should have 16 by now.
 
Still close to 40s here which is pretty unusual for this late

But the summer preview is coming Thursday through the weekend.... I do kind of feel bad for these people who spent thousands of dollars to come chase here and nothing to happen haha

Then I heard yesterday a famous one was scamming people from overseas so that was fascinating to read
 
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We’re getting some rain this morning from the N edge of the precip. area. The possibility of rain for today wasn’t even mentioned in the forecast for this far N until late last night as the N edge of rain chances had been forecasted S of here. Temps are in the middle 60s.
 
SD said:
First real taste of summer with elevated dews and highs either side of 90 Monday-Friday of next week. Rain chances look legit in the mid-long term but we bake out until then unless you are in the western parts of the region where rain returns much sooner.
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Probably dry or drier than expected until/through fall as well but who knows? Nino will probably break down earlier than expected!
 
Has anyone noticed that the 10AM EDT/9AM CDT US hourly NWS city by city readings aren’t available in many states? NYC/Boston area readings are but most others aren’t.
 
jeremyt said:
Probably dry or drier than expected until/through fall as well but who knows? Nino will probably break down earlier than expected!
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Persistence says yes to the dry and so far it's winning. Pattern as a whole shouldn't have been as dry as it has been the last 14. Last week of May into mid June look like another shot for decent rain
 
I know everyone is different, but my perfect default wx (besides “events”) is low 70’s for high’s/mid 50’s for lows with a light breeze and relative humidity that doesn’t exceed 50%. You can do semi strenuous exercise outside without getting too sweaty, and you can get away with not running heat/AC within that range.

I love this time of year cause you can actually do stuff outside without a lot of planning and the mosquitoes haven’t completely invaded yet.
 
After eating a snack, I’m waiting in my vehicle here at the park to see if the current light rain will lighten up and thus allow for a mainly dry walk. I hope so because walking conditions are otherwise pretty darn good for mid-May with only mid 60 temps, a nice NE breeze, and dewpoints in the mid 50s. Regardless, today was/is very pleasant comfort-wise for mid-May.

Edit: I got the walk in as the rain stayed very light.
 
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Welp only got .1" yesterday during the "storm." Funny being under a ST warning with no thunder. I digress. Also we seem to have lost our Wednesday/Thursday precip.

This map looks horrific for cropland and our forests which have been stressed since 2021 aside from 3 months last summer where we saw widespread normal to above normal rainfall. At least locally there's no year I can find post 1954 where we've been this late in the year and still haven't crossed 5" of year to date precipitation. Genuinely unprecedented for most everyone's living memory.

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More subarctic cold this morning. Back on Monday there were storms along the Crystal Coast while I got nothing. Freaking typicalism. Back to back 40s lows at the airport yet again, 48°F this morning following a very cold and dry day yesterday, a high of 70°F and 30s dews despite clear skies.

Absolutely had it with this pus heap of a month. Worst May in recorded history. July better be particularly hot and stormy 🤬
 
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I have been hoping we get some rain but only on days when I don’t have softball games or Saturdays when I can play golf


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I see some panicking already saying winter is over for 26-27 but from all the records of snow events across the Carolinas in recent super el niños the only real miss season was 91-92’. When you look at 72-73’, 82-83’, 97-98’, and 15-16’ they all featured winter weather in climo favored areas of NC and SC that typically see it. 72-73’ and 82-83’ were actually bangers of a season. A theme for all though is not a lot of wintry weather early on in the season. Mostly Jan-Mar in those years. What are y’all’s thoughts?
 
scncborderwx said:
I see some panicking already saying winter is over for 26-27 but from all the records of snow events across the Carolinas in recent super el niños the only real miss season was 91-92’. When you look at 72-73’, 82-83’, 97-98’, and 15-16’ they all featured winter weather in climo favored areas of NC and SC that typically see it. 72-73’ and 82-83’ were actually bangers of a season. A theme for all though is not a lot of wintry weather early on in the season. Mostly Jan-Mar in those years. What are y’all’s thoughts?
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We will lasso an event/ and it will be a mod to biggie cause of the juice ( qpf). But that's it. Super el ninos flood Canada/ conus with pac origin air. You have a big qpf event every 3-5 days as the stj spits them out in rapid fashion. But it's the cold @ 850mb that's lacking. Usually have a lot of mid 40-50 degree cloudy days in between events. Yard and Pasteur's are a sponge all winter. I'm in the NFAA ( No Fan At All) category for mod-strong el ninos.
Have the punter ready before Halloween as we will know for certain its gonna be a mod-strong. The only saving grace might be the exact position. You want the warm pool to be as west based out in the pacific toward the red Chinese as possible. Otherwise its caddie bar the door!
 
Seems like there might be a small low-precipitation supercell near Pigeon Forge with some sort of rotation couplet that has been evident on velocity for several scans, but has slightly off-placement relative to the storm’s precipitation location. The overall environment and radar orientation lead me to believe this is fairly legitimate, but clearly on the weaker side of things. IMG_4403.jpegIMG_4404.jpeg
 
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