n/m, found it under https://maps.cocorahs.org/
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern May 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
dsaur
Member
Had less than an inch for most of April, and about 5 since, so a nice turn around here. Several terrific downpours mixed in.
The 3km NAM has ramped up storm chances for the Atlanta metro and areas to the south and east substantially. Nature's alarm clock, if this is right.
It's pretty much on an island showing storms. 18z run also coming in now and much less activity
Brent
Member
30 miles away about an hour ago. The models definitely underestimated the coverage of storms
CJ nailed it
Raining this morning
Busted again on the rainfall forecast for the coastal plain areas. Lots of weekend events were canceled or postponed because we were expecting up to an inch today up until the overnight runs. Now we're bone dry until Monday when hopefully another chance materializes.
The wet stay wet, the NC precip hole is legit! 
First extended stretch of 90’s starting to show up in the long range 
Yea the lack of hot sunny weather is the only reason we haven't completely combusted eastern NC and SC. Really hope we don't miss out again on Monday. ILM seems to think we won't but we were looking good 24hrs ago too.
Corn crop is effectively a month behind this spring outside of the very few areas with pivot irrigation due to drought. Hot weather with little or no rain will finish it off.
Corn crop is effectively a month behind this spring outside of the very few areas with pivot irrigation due to drought. Hot weather with little or no rain will finish it off.
I just got back home today and I actually had 4.1" in my physical rain gauge. I'm pretty shocked by that actually.
I got only ~0.08” last night and only ~.01” during the daytime today, both pretty disappointing vs expectations. MTD as of 5/9 is ~1.3”, 1.2” of which fell one week ago (5/2) with a nice soaking 18 hour rain.
————————
Edit at 1:20 PM on May 10th: This morning after midnight (on 5/10) I once again got only a few hundredths, which puts me at ~1.35” MTD.
————————
Edit at 1:20 PM on May 10th: This morning after midnight (on 5/10) I once again got only a few hundredths, which puts me at ~1.35” MTD.
Last edited:
here's the 00z nbm for the next 120 hrs, but after today's fail, i do not agree with it for many areas:
lexxnchloe
Member
It would appear that the various numerical models are not seeing the impacts of the El Nino episode now taking shape over the equatorial Pacific Basin.
If you review the various longer term forecast schemes and ensemble platforms, there is still a great deal of chaos with respect to development and placement of heat ridges. Although now weak, I expect a well-organized high-end moderate intensity at the 3.4 benchmark by August 1. On the argument that a stronger +ENSO signature is now likely, then heat ridges should be targeting both the West and the eastern third of the lower 48 states, with a gap or weakness between the two along and over the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. ButI am still seeing cold lows with the subtropical jet stream swing through California into Texas, this despite the fact that a) the Madden-Julian Oscillation has shifted to the eastern Indian Ocean and b) a new southern branch is growing below Hawaii with an eventual aim at the Gulf of Alaska. The GFS and CFS series, while not perfect, are the best fit for climatology and more extensive heat for late May and much of June. Thunderstorm impacts seem to be shifting into the Midwest and Great Lakes, which is where I would expect as we move out of Spring.
The NAEFS projection has a more likely placement with a cool Canada vs. warm/hot lower 48 states in Week 2, which I believe will remain if not expand during the month of June. Two things to keep your eye on for possible heatwaves: Ignore climatic indices (which are all the rage now in the weather community) and focus on 500MB structures. If heights are at 588dcm or higher, then that area and its immediate west and north will have extreme surface heating, especially when a core is well-defined (closed circulation present). Look also at water temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Basins, which if excessively warm will be supportive of intense Sonoran and Bermudan heat ridges. The gap between the two subtropical highs represents possible paths for disturbances (mesoscale or synoptic, tropical or baroclinic). A key element in temperature prediction, after all, is where rain is present, heat may be diminished. Dryness equates to potential heat, a lesson learned in such major torched summers such as 2011, 2012, 2016 and 2023. I think that heat chances will diminish over the eastern states after July 4, while the West and Central theaters (including Texas) will be hot from late June through the middle of September.
If you review the various longer term forecast schemes and ensemble platforms, there is still a great deal of chaos with respect to development and placement of heat ridges. Although now weak, I expect a well-organized high-end moderate intensity at the 3.4 benchmark by August 1. On the argument that a stronger +ENSO signature is now likely, then heat ridges should be targeting both the West and the eastern third of the lower 48 states, with a gap or weakness between the two along and over the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. ButI am still seeing cold lows with the subtropical jet stream swing through California into Texas, this despite the fact that a) the Madden-Julian Oscillation has shifted to the eastern Indian Ocean and b) a new southern branch is growing below Hawaii with an eventual aim at the Gulf of Alaska. The GFS and CFS series, while not perfect, are the best fit for climatology and more extensive heat for late May and much of June. Thunderstorm impacts seem to be shifting into the Midwest and Great Lakes, which is where I would expect as we move out of Spring.
The NAEFS projection has a more likely placement with a cool Canada vs. warm/hot lower 48 states in Week 2, which I believe will remain if not expand during the month of June. Two things to keep your eye on for possible heatwaves: Ignore climatic indices (which are all the rage now in the weather community) and focus on 500MB structures. If heights are at 588dcm or higher, then that area and its immediate west and north will have extreme surface heating, especially when a core is well-defined (closed circulation present). Look also at water temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Basins, which if excessively warm will be supportive of intense Sonoran and Bermudan heat ridges. The gap between the two subtropical highs represents possible paths for disturbances (mesoscale or synoptic, tropical or baroclinic). A key element in temperature prediction, after all, is where rain is present, heat may be diminished. Dryness equates to potential heat, a lesson learned in such major torched summers such as 2011, 2012, 2016 and 2023. I think that heat chances will diminish over the eastern states after July 4, while the West and Central theaters (including Texas) will be hot from late June through the middle of September.
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, May 10, 2026 at 2:10 P.M. CT
Sunday, May 10, 2026 at 2:10 P.M. CT
Yeah, I got NAMd, lol. Luckily, it rainfall rather than snowfall.
12z NBM, looks to be drying up:
This + 90’s wouldn’t help the drought 
rusrius
Member
Are we not surprised? Our "pattern change" lasted a whopping 2 days.
rusrius
Member
Some "pattern change".
looked back through my photos - only weather related one I saw was this? Is this what you’re referring to?
Winner! Yes, indeed, the quake was a rather big deal one year ago today throughout ATL-AHN area as well as the rest of N GA, E TN, and the W Carolinas.
Yep saw it earlier on the NOAA QPF output. Just a shame. With the hot weather later this coming week I expect us in the eastern Carolinas to move into the worst drought category of D4. Gonna be a lot of dryland crops getting burned down with chemical because it's pointless to let them keep growing so stunted.
No timelapse. Cant get it to copy correctly. But a pretty cool fact.
Nice looking echoes over east TN/ SW VA and WVA this morning. Congrats
RRFS has more or less dried up for us too. One small complex of showers moving through NESC now but it won't amount to much. The worst drought areas east of I-95 look to stay dry.
It's unbelievable how many times we've been down this road since roughly Labor Day last year. After a wetter than average JJA the tap shut off and seemingly every time we're lined up for heavier rains in the forecast it vanishes the day before. The only thing that didn't vanish is the foot of snow in January so that's something I guess. It'd just be nice to get back to whatever state we were in pre-2021 where it actually rained semi-regularly instead of this drought/flood cycle we're stuck in.
It's unbelievable how many times we've been down this road since roughly Labor Day last year. After a wetter than average JJA the tap shut off and seemingly every time we're lined up for heavier rains in the forecast it vanishes the day before. The only thing that didn't vanish is the foot of snow in January so that's something I guess. It'd just be nice to get back to whatever state we were in pre-2021 where it actually rained semi-regularly instead of this drought/flood cycle we're stuck in.
aturner1979
Member
Finally got a good soaking rain up this way. 0.75 in in the gauge so far. May come just short of cracking an inch after this last band swings through.
Avalanche
Member
Those were great today. Towering cumulonimbus with downpours and wind. Very little lightning
We got "quite a bit" of thunder & lighting just up the coast in Surf City et al..
I used to carry earthquake insurance, but apparently, insurance companies no longer offer earthquake coverage in this area. It was cheap, and I thought it worthwhile since I have a poured basement with antique-style bricks in my man cave.
State Farm still offers with homeowners in Georgia! Unless that is a new change that just happened.
Last edited:
We dropping into the 30s tonight?? Almost cold outside especially for May 11th
Hybrid/tropical prospects growing
welp, this sucks for the next 120hrs, imo.
