lexxnchloe
Member
Reg Euro says lets get some March madness going
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March 2026 - Winter or Spring?
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
why are we zoomed over the atlantic ocean lol
If this is true (it is believable and KATL stats support this idea…..maybe someone could check RDU/GSO), my guess would be because upper levels are slower to warm on average than lower levels. The lower levels are likely quicker to warm from the higher sun angle.
I believe that Feb may actually average slightly colder than Jan in many locations at H5 despite being slightly warmer than Jan at 2m.
Sun starts winning vs low level cold
trackersacker
Member
Anyone wanna take a stab at what the MJO is doing? And I don’t mean with the red lasers but the jog towards 7 and 8
SnowNiner
Member
Pattern reminds me of December, big Arctic ridge over Alaska funneling cold air into AK, big -PNA, with all the cold locked up to the north. Had big cold routinely heading east, with occasional muted dips down to the SE pushing down the SE ridging due to -NAO.
My guess is this overall pattern minus the -NAO continues in March with a bit stronger troughing pushing the SE ridge down a little, but likely not enough to go crazy cold for this time of year due to the lack of -NAO. But enough to be like, "man I'm ready for spring, just get warm".
My guess is this overall pattern minus the -NAO continues in March with a bit stronger troughing pushing the SE ridge down a little, but likely not enough to go crazy cold for this time of year due to the lack of -NAO. But enough to be like, "man I'm ready for spring, just get warm".
Bigedd09
Member
Didn’t see it posted but the 0z CFS had a winter storm for parts of the southeast next week
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I think this is basically it. Radiational heating at the surface from the increasing sun angle gets harder and harder to beat as we move towards the spring equinox. That being said, there are exceptions to the rule, like the major ice storm of March 2014 for N NC, the worst ice storm the area has had since December 2002 (of course, many didn’t believe in it because major ice storms in March aren’t usually a thing).
Didn’t Atlanta get a major ice storm in March 1973 or something?
3/25/1971 was an ATL area major ZR although not right at the airport (southside), where they got no more than a minor amount with the lowest right at 32.
March major ZR at ATL:
3/25/1971
3/2/1960
3/9/1960
3/6/1948
The AI Euro keeps hope alive with this one. Seems to be on its own, though.
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NBAcentel
Member
Sometimes ridges on a H5 map are really pretty. Really nice positioning of the ridge there to mitigate wedging after next week. This timeframe is gonna be the pollening 
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Not at all what you want to see. 
Brent
Member
It's already been happening out here. Yeah we need a lot of rain
Like I said many times elsewhere it's been entirely too dry for months
Coinciding with the jet stream starting to displace itself more to the south through GEFS/EPS trends, instability will be plenty for any pacific trough that traverses past the Rocky Mtns it appears.
Admittedly a little selective of Houston in particular, but aside from probabilistic forecasting here; every EPS member shows a rich moisture plume advecting into the Gulf Coast states.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Maybe something to watch for someone in the south.....at least midsouth? March is so hard to predict with all the warmth and cold so close together.
NBAcentel
Member
Absolutely amazing progression for early summer like warmth there with the mean longwave trough setting out the NW/western US. Can’t wedge here after mid next week with the mean ridge axis over the Bermuda Triangle. One of those patterns that’s easy 75-85 / 50-60 once the mean ridge moves slightly east for a while until it breaks 
Everything blooms out then we get the mid-March freeze. You know it's coming.
NBAcentel
Member
Oh I know. Can already see the signs at the end of the AIFS ens especially
good I need to send the woolly mammoths back north from the coldest winter ever
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Well looks like we’re staring at another fairly strong SSWE early March. Probably will start see the effects of that mid March through early April imo.
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Unfortunately, it may be time to piss on the fire and call in the dogs. We had a great run. It’s unfortunate we couldn’t mix another one in there during February but hey. 
Something stupid is gonna happen in mid to late March. I mean if this polar vortex hooblah happens, someone is gonna get some sort of anomaly storm.
Probably something that will fry severe weather season.
Brent
Member
The only good thing I see on the models is that it looks wet haha
I mean we need the rain so whatever
I mean we need the rain so whatever
trackersacker
Member
Co sign
Interested to see who wins this one Monday/Tuesday. AIFS is a good bit stronger wedge than op Euro
Tie goes to the WxNext? Right in between the two. AIFS known to produce high temperatures that are too cold essentially all the time but it is synoptically different with stronger HP. GFS is AIFS-level chilly Tuesday
Tie goes to the WxNext? Right in between the two. AIFS known to produce high temperatures that are too cold essentially all the time but it is synoptically different with stronger HP. GFS is AIFS-level chilly Tuesday
SnowNiner
Member
Cant tell you how frustrating it is this year, to go on a cruise out of town when MBY gets a foot of snow....then have a trip to NY upstate, the exact same time an anomalous stinking ridge is going to roast the entire east coast. I give up.
Well looks like we’re staring at another fairly strong SSWE early March. Probably will start see the effects of that mid March through early April imo.
This has a mean way down at -11 m/s as of March 7th along with 100% of members going negative. The most notable thing about this is that the run from just 5 days earlier was calling for a near climo of +20 on March 7th (see below) meaning a whopping 31 drop within just 5 days of runs! It had a mere 2% of members going negative around March 7th. I’ve never seen anything like this huge negative change headed toward a reversal within just 5 days of EW runs. Hoping this means a BN late March/early April down here, which would be pleasant (highs mainly 60s to 75 with low dewpoints and lows mainly 40s…anything to hold off the build up heat leading to summer is always fine with me):
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Bigedd09
Member
The 0z CFS had an ice to snow event across portions of the southeast next week
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
12z GFS is trending a little colder for the early next week system
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Yeah, that’s the same system the AI Euro has been keying on at times. VA has a better shot at it, but it’s worth watching here, I suppose, even if the chance is fairly remote. Looks good for @LukeBarrette.
rburrel2
Member
Very strong wedge on both the euro ai and gfs for Tuesday. Freezing rain/sleet could get in to ga/sc if there’s precip.
rburrel2
Member
Wouldn’t shock me if this winds up as a solid hit for NC(maybe mostly sleet?). Especially considering the snow pack over the northeast. Euro ai has been fairly steady.