Looks like a line of showers/storms is forming in/ south of CLT tho
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Severe March 13-15 Central Upper South Severe Threat
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather
No doubt....this along with being so far removed from the slp that is dragging the cold front through made this a marginal event at best around here.
Not surprising as they have seen the best heating and instability so far today
Mesoscale Discussion 221< Previous MD
Mesoscale Discussion 0221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019
Areas affected...the central Carolinas into southeast Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151936Z - 152200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storm coverage should gradually increase over the next few
hours, and a few may produce locally strong wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Heating has contributed to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE from
GA into SC, with lesser values northeastward into VA. This zone of
relatively warm air exists in advance of a cold front, now moving
into central GA and across the western Carolinas where a band of
precipitation exists ahead of the front.
Visible imagery show increasing CU fields as well as a few weak
thunderstorms along the front especially from GA into SC where
heating is strongest. Forecast soundings show a warm layer below 700
mb which is likely contributing to slow storm growth.
As heating persists, a few strong storms are expected to develop.
Generally long, straight hodographs suggest cellular activity, but
mixed storm mode is possible as well with line segments. Given
southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35-45 kt, some storms may produce
marginally severe wind gusts. Small hail cannot be ruled out with
the strongest cores.
Cells dumping some heavy rain up this way though, I could've done without that..... lol
Im watching that cluster coming out of SC. That seemed to be the area the HRRR was hitting on
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