• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Lee

Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
16,448
Reaction score
62,001
Location
Desert Southwest ?
Another strong tropical wave immediately in the wake of 96L has emerged off Africa and has shown some signs of organization (& rightfully so as a modest CCKW passes over the region). Model support is not quite as high w/ this system but they may not be handling the upstream dispersion terribly well (as usual) & some development is possible as it heads into the central Atlantic...

2. Another tropical wave, located between the west coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is
possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become less
favorable. The system is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Screen Shot 2017-09-14 at 9.26.58 AM.png

Post away
 
On the fast track to Lee at this rate



Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 300 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands have
continued to become better organized this afternoon. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Friday. This
system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
I will be looking for TD 14 tonight it appears than by 11 or wake up to it tomorrow. Just insane how this thing developed fast. However, it's this one that will be OTS waaaaay out.
 
Yeah this is definitely at least a TD, maybe even a low grade TS atm. Rarely see curved banding like that on anything less than a strong (50-55+ knot) TS.
avn-animated.gif
 
ForsythSnow said:
North? Not so fast.
025008_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Click to expand...

Yeah it may not go out to sea terribly quickly, especially if it weakens after day 3 due to increasing southwesterly shear from a digging TUTT that's currently over the north-central Atlantic. It's future is also heavily dependent on 96L in front of it, if it strengthens considerably, this could impart excess westerly wind shear on TD 14 that may further limit its development the next several days. Lots of moving parts/pieces need to be sorted out. Regardless, I think we can say at this point that odds are TD 14 is liable to hit something down the road, we just don't know what that something is & its largely dependent on the convoluted evolution of Jose...
 
If this thing doesn't get moving it won't be Lee and I really don't want 96L to be Lee lol
 
he's backkkk????

Special TWO

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a low pressure area,
the remnants of Lee, located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Satellite wind data show that the low is already producing
gale-force winds, and only a small increase in the organization of
the deep convection would result in the regeneration of Lee.
However, the environmental conditions are only marginal favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This low is expected to move
northward over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
60/70

and the UKMET has this close to a hurricane too

If it can make hurricane that will be 8 in a row... Franklin-Maria
 
Updated: A small area of low pressure has developed over the
central Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. The low is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms, although the circulation appears somewhat elongated.
Some additional development of this system is possible during the
next few days while it moves slowly northward through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Blake
Here we go again.
 
Still not sure if this is Lee or Nate the 2pm two now says it's ex lee after earlier not mentioning that
 
forecast to be a hurricane too, would keep the hurricane streak alive...

can we fix the spelling of tropical? :p
 
Looking really good now. Should become a hurricane soon. Up to 50 now, but small storms have that tendency to RI in good conditions. Maybe won't be much, but still, we could get up to a 3 if the HMON is right. A cat 1 is reasonable though. We should continue the hurricane streak.
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Special Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 230 AM AST...0630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 50.1W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
 
Clouds seem to be cooling now around the eye. If the eye remains open, there is now way the satellite is on point. It would have to be at least a strong 2 or weak 3.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top