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Tropical Major Hurricane Lee

Webberweather53 said:
Yeah idk how this is only a 90 mph category 1...
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Probably because all they can use is a satellite estimate. They can't fly a plane way out there and I bet they won't due to it not being a threat. Really, I think they should someday have long range unmanned aircraft fly out to systems like this for research purposes. Having no recon or surface readings makes classification harder. For all we know it could actually be a strong cat 2.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Probably because all they can use is a satellite estimate. They can't fly a plane way out there and I bet they won't due to it not being a threat. Really, I think they should someday have long range unmanned aircraft fly out to systems like this for research purposes. Having no recon or surface readings makes classification harder. For all we know it could actually be a strong cat 2.
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Yeah the thing about the satellite estimates with storms deep into the subtropics is they often underestimate the intensity of storms like Lee because the canonical cloud top temperature Dvorak intensity relationships break down here due to the lower tropopause heights which = warmer convection. Plus Lee is small, and even a very minute error in the satellite fixes can lead to large errors in intensity (15-25 kt+). Taking into account these two aforementioned biases, Lee is probably a 90-95 KT category 2 hurricane atm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I don't see how this isn't at least 100-105 mph.
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Whatever it is, that's good ... or bad for sardines or mackerel (pun) or whatever lives out there ... least us air-breathing folks have a Sunday evening with no bad stuff happening ...

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:eek:
 
The 18Z GFS is a fair bit east of the 12Z GFS regarding Maria and continues the eastward trend of recent GFS runs. I notice that H Lee has been getting further and further west on each run for the same timeframe, which leads me to think that perhaps he is at least indirectly drawing her further away from NC at her closest approach. Opinions? So, might Lee save NC from a direct hit or at least a very close miss from Maria after Jose already very likely saved the SE US from a massive hit from Maria?
 
Snowfan said:
What do you think it is then?
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The tropopause height over Lee is ~ 50-75 hPa lower around Lee than it is over Maria and most of the tropical Atlantic, therefore cloud top temperatures will inherently be warmer than it would be for another TC of equivalent strength in the deep tropics, and since the Dvorak scale is largely based on cloud top temperatures this is probably biasing the satellite estimates too low by at least 5-10 KT. Plus, Lee is a small cyclone and satellites can occasionally have issues resolving their inner core and/or small errors in satellite fixes (potentially attributable to parallax) often lead to underestimates in intensity. Conservatively, Lee is probably a 90 KT (105 mph), mid grade category 2 hurricane atm.
 
Almost looks like Lee underwent an ERC from what I could tell. This keeps becoming more and more frustrating as it may create false data in the future when looking back at storms if Lee truly is much stronger.
 
Lee underwent an EWRC late yesterday and a new, much larger eye has emerged as he also moved away from his own cold wake. Arguably a major hurricane atm... Beautiful storm.
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Webberweather53 said:
Lee underwent an EWRC late yesterday and a new, much larger eye has emerged as he also moved away from his own cold wake. Arguably a major hurricane atm... Beautiful storm.
vis-animated.gif
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Well, it is 97.2 knots per Dvorak, so that would mean a major hurricane, but the NHC would round it to 110 at best, or still a 2. Lee's eye is looking colder again, so maybe an upgrade is coming. I doubt it though given how they have responded so far.

EDI: 105, 975mb. Still underdone I believe.
 
It almost appears that Lee is about to undergo another ERC, as its overall size is growing, its eye looks a bit weaker to me, and there appears to be an outer area of convection wrapping around to begin one. Probably will undergo one tonight before strengthening into a major tomorrow.
 
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